6/7/24 - $pwfl - can't own it near $5; reassess w $3 handle. k?

6/7/24 - vrockstar - $NASDAQ:PWFL - doing a friday look at IOT alternatives given my initial start stake in IOT today (go read that) seeing if there's anything else to own.

this one has a great story. fleet-matics i'll call it. nearly $300 mm in revenue this year is the mgmt goal so 2x sales - which is probably not the right metric - but a starting pt that is least polluted by all the BS that happens under revenue in "tech-related". gross mgns here are not really software - much more of a hardware business (unlike mgns for IOT which are rich and sustainable and likely will expand).

even if you look at mgmt projections for '26 which are not fair to give any company (ever) it's $100 mm of EBITDA, which puts this at 6x ebitda and probably it should theoretically trade at 10x if they could reach that pt (if we had a crystal ball). however, what's the discount rate for equities, nevermind smaller, and w lofty projections? 20? 25%? - so you're at 6x discounting back 2 yrs anyway.

the underlying point here is (and really - damn - i'm looking for longs and have to write it like i see it bc my money is on the line - i'm writing these for myself guys not to pander to the always-buy-and-be-bullish-on-everything-that-trades-or-floats-even-poop crowd on social media these days)....

THE point is - this isn't ownable here. if you have a nuanced view, or think their tech is close to M&A - sure - go for it. but at nearly $5/shr, it's dead money in my book at best and i think realistic downside is probably in the $3-4/shr region (easy). i'm not in a hurry to buy this. i'd buy the faster swimmer w/ more cap, good results and just on the beginning of their S-curve which again remains IOT even if it's expensive (again go read the logic in my post on that one).

gl to all. feel free to comment if u want to add something helpful to my thesis or offer a rebuttal

-V