Neutral - watching gradual downtrend/50-week EMA

8 Feb

Not buying today despite the discount because a gradual downtrend has formed. As long as that pattern holds, it will continue to make lower highs and lower lows over time (doesn't sound fun). That said, if it can eventually break out of the downtrend (which is currently running next to the 50-week EMA), I would consider starting a position (even though it would be at a higher entry). Anyway, I'll keep an eye on for a weekly and/or monthly close decisively (with volume) above that level.

8 Feb

Nota

I excluded the April 2022 candle because that was part of a sharper downtrend from the all-time high. Here's a monthly chart showing all historical price action.

8 Feb

Nota

Another way it could possibly eventually break out would be by trading quietly sideways for a while. I'd say that would be the ideal set up to trade on. But anyway, just watching for now.

14 Feb

Nota

Tweaked the trend line slightly to reflect weekly closing prices. I'm disregarding the candle from the week of 1/22/24 because, while I'm cutting it off slightly, it was turned back at the 50-week EMA and closed lower.

14 Feb

Nota

The trend line is still close enough to the 50-week EMA that I would use the 50-week EMA as a signal to trade on instead.

31 Mac

Nota

I was out of town last week but I'll be looking to start a position in PayPal on Monday as I see it closed above the 50-week EMA (nice monthly close as well). Not sure on a price target ATM. My initial thought is that this is only a one and a half year downtrend, so maybe it can test the 200-week/50-month EMA (which is currently just over $100 and would be about a 50% return).

1 Apr

Nota

Started a position in PayPal just now. If it can rise fairly quickly to the 200-week/50-month EMA, then I'll probably just sell there. If it spends some time trading sideways, I may raise that target. I could also set a fairly tight stop loss of a weekly close back below the 50-week EMA but not sure on that yet.

3 Apr

Nota

I've thought about the potential stop loss more. Right now, we're just below the 50-week EMA but close enough I would continue to hold. If it closes significantly below the 50-week EMA I'll probably sell and wait for a more meaningful close back above the 50-week EMA to re-enter. As I've already said, I'd rather see it trade sideways for a while, so if I get stopped out, I may just wait and see if that sets up. Anyway, holding for now.

16 Apr

Nota

This trade is not looking good at the moment but I'm going to hold and see how the rest of this week plays out. If it sells off significantly I may just continue to hold and average down at some point. If it stays around where it is now ($63) or a little lower then I'll probably sell out for a minimal loss and continue to keep an eye on it.

19 Apr

Nota

Probably selling today as it's been turned away around the 50-week EMA, also updated the trendline. Will continue to watch and maybe look to re-enter depending on how it sets up.

19 Apr

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Officially sold out of my position just now, will continue to keep an eye on though.

29 Apr

Nota

Back above the 50-week EMA, I got faked out pretty hard that's for sure but didn't have much invested in this yet anyway. Earnings coming up tomorrow looks like before the open. Probably will move decisively, anyone's guess which way... If it pops higher, I'll look to eventually get back in on a potential gap fill. If it drops lower, I'll continue to wait. And if I miss out, oh well. Good luck!

30 Apr

Nota

Nice gap up this morning. If I had funds available I would probably buy this move because so far it's not too crazy, up about 5-6%. However, I personally have to wait until next week to potentially re-enter, so I'll see how the rest of this week and early next week play out.

6 Mei

Nota

Still stuck at the 50-week EMA after looking like it was being turned away (which got me out), then reversed and looked like it was going to break out. I will continue to watch, not re-entering at this time. Want to see if it can retest the breakout from earnings last week, which quickly reversed. Ideally, I'd like to see it trade sideways quietly for several weeks.

7 Jun

Nota

Back above the 50-week EMA. Unless it falls apart this afternoon I'm going to restart a position. No stop loss this time. If it falls I'll just average down. I'm still looking for a short-term rise to around $100; however, if it spends years in a basing (accumulation) range around where it's at now or lower, I may raise that target. Good luck if you decide to follow and diversify so that this trade doesn't matter much if it doesn't work out but can provide a boost to your portfolio if it does.

14 Jun

Nota

Faked out again... I'll look to average down at some point but it hasn't dropped enough yet. Looks like it wants to break down (but it's looked like that before)...

16 Jul

Nota

Updated trendline to the fakeout candle which is now an important resistance level, still running really close to the 50-week EMA.

30 Jul

Nota

Nice reaction to earnings this morning. Despite that, it's still below significant resistance currently (hopefully the strength can continue and provide a meaningful breakout). I'll look to double the position that I started almost 2 months ago on a weekly close above the "fakeout" candle. Otherwise I'm still holding and looking for a spot to average down if it fails at key resistance here.

30 Jul

Nota

Took a look at the chart with the 50-week SMA (instead of EMA) and it's interesting. Price was turned away at it in January 2023, July 2023, and ultimately in January/February 2024 before it was able to breakout for several weeks. I still think the 50-week EMA is a more important level to break through but this indicator seems like it may be useful as well so I'll keep an eye on it.

16 Ogo

Nota

Technically a breakout on a weekly closing basis but just barely. I'm going to wait another week before potentially doubling down.

23 Ogo

Nota

Price followed through this week, so I will double my position near the close today (as long as it doesn't fall apart this afternoon). Personally, this position will only be ~1% of my Roth IRA portfolio even after doubling my position, so it really doesn't make much difference to me if it reverses again from here. If that happens, I would continue to watch for an opportunity to average down significantly. Otherwise, I'll continue to hold and hope that this can help provide some growth to my portfolio. I recommend doing the same if you decide to follow (diversify, diversify, diversify!).

13 Sep

Nota

Hoping support holds at or above the 50-week EMA now that it has spent several weeks above it.