📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* QQQ had a sharp breakdown from 537-540 and is now consolidating near 525.98.
* Support Levels:
* 523.00 (current price zone, minor support).
* 520.00 (strong put wall, major downside risk if broken).
* 515-510 (critical support levels with heavy put positioning).
* Resistance Levels:
* 532.51 (POC, key level for recovery).
* 537.23 (VAH, strong resistance).
* If QQQ loses 520, a further decline to 515-510 is likely.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 532.51 → High liquidity, key resistance level.
* Value Area High (VAH): 537.23 → Strong rejection area.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 526.00 → Must hold for potential rebound.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish, confirming downward momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but no confirmation of a reversal yet.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 545-550 → High gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 520 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support.
* 515-510 → Critical put walls—if broken, QQQ could see a major sell-off.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 25 | IVx Avg 22.7 → Moderately elevated volatility.
* Put Positioning 73.7% → Heavy bearish sentiment, increasing downside risk.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 523 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 520.00 (Put Wall Support). 🔹 Target 2: 515-510 (Put Wall Breakdown Level). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 528 (invalidates breakdown). 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 525/515 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 525P/510P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 528-532, targeting 537+. 🔹 Target 1: 532.51 (POC, first resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 537.23 (major resistance). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 523 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 510/505 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 528+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 520, strong gamma exposure can push QQQ lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* QQQ had a sharp breakdown from 537-540 and is now consolidating near 525.98.
* Support Levels:
* 523.00 (current price zone, minor support).
* 520.00 (strong put wall, major downside risk if broken).
* 515-510 (critical support levels with heavy put positioning).
* Resistance Levels:
* 532.51 (POC, key level for recovery).
* 537.23 (VAH, strong resistance).
* If QQQ loses 520, a further decline to 515-510 is likely.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 532.51 → High liquidity, key resistance level.
* Value Area High (VAH): 537.23 → Strong rejection area.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 526.00 → Must hold for potential rebound.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish, confirming downward momentum.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but no confirmation of a reversal yet.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 545-550 → High gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 520 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support.
* 515-510 → Critical put walls—if broken, QQQ could see a major sell-off.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 25 | IVx Avg 22.7 → Moderately elevated volatility.
* Put Positioning 73.7% → Heavy bearish sentiment, increasing downside risk.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 523 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 520.00 (Put Wall Support). 🔹 Target 2: 515-510 (Put Wall Breakdown Level). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 528 (invalidates breakdown). 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 525/515 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 525P/510P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 528-532, targeting 537+. 🔹 Target 1: 532.51 (POC, first resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 537.23 (major resistance). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 523 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 510/505 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 528+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 520, strong gamma exposure can push QQQ lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.