QQQ (5 September)

The slope of the lines matters for pattern bias

• Sloping slightly down from $583 to $580
  
• Holding flat around $563–$565
  
• That shape is actually closer to a descending triangle
  
• Bearish continuation if support breaks
  

But here’s the nuance,

• Descending triangles typically form after a downtrend, as continuation
  
• QQQ is in a strong uptrend, so even if the geometry looks bearish, context says bulls still have an edge
  
• In uptrends, these patterns can fail bearishly & instead resolve higher, especially if support keeps holding
  

So the pattern could be read 2 ways,

1. Descending triangle with support at $563 breaks = $545–$550
   
2. A coiling consolidation under resistance, which still may resolve upward given the broader trend
   

The key difference will be whether $563 breaks down or holds

• Bearish breakdown (descending triangle plays out) at 35% because the macro trend is up since April & bulls usually defend support zones first, but if $563 breaks with volume, bears gain momentum quickly
  
• Bullish breakout (uptrend prevails) at 50% because of the broader uptrend + strong dip buying since April
  
• Each rejection at $580 has been shallow, showing underlying demand
  
• Price keeps oscillating between $563–$580 for another week at 15% in the short run, but if it drags on too long, the eventual breakout becomes stronger