QQQ Path to $600

13 Ogo

Macro Tailwinds

• ~95% odds of a September rate cut, an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations
  
• If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher (soft landing vs stagflation narrative)
  

Yields

• 10Y Treasury back toward 3.8-4.0%
  
• Lower yields historically supportive for QQQ
  

Earnings

• Mag 7 beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 keeps AI momentum intact
  
• More than 65-70% of NDQ100 above their 50d SMA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders
  

Technical Path

• Support near ~$573
  
• Resistance around $577–580 (recent intraday highs)
  
• Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger
  
• QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595
  
• Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600)
  
• Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4
  
• Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September.
  
• Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before end of year
  

14 Ogo

Nota

** I posted an updated version with some corrections