As of today, Sears Holdings Corporation has a book value of -$18.45. Kindly notice the negative sign, given the fact that liabilities > assets. In addition, it has annualized losses per share of -$10.7 and it is expected to have Q1 results of -$3.21 EPS . Based only on these fundamental metrics, a valuation of $16.81 per share is totally unsustainable in the short run, let alone in the mid run or long run. These fundamentals are expected to further deteriorate in the coming quarters.
From a technical perspective and as seen in the chart, SHLD is in a clear downtrend tunnel, and it is following it rigorously like in a textbook example. I expect SHLD to be below $16 at a minimum before end of March, and maybe close to $12 depending on other market conditions. I also consider low risk forecasts the following:
SHLD with a price below $14.5 by June (especially after publishing Q1 results)
SHLD with a price below $10.5 by December
All the above provide good reference points to speculate with Options or simply sell short the stock with even lesser risk; as long as the underlying asset follows the technical patterns described.
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