SMCI bounce

9 Sep

SMCI technicals are oversold, so I'm looking for a bullish bounce. If you take a look at it's stochastic value on the 1 day chart, the fast moving line is waiting to cross over the slow moving line. This can point to a bullish reversal in the near future. Also, as far as positioning, SMCI price is sitting at a major support level on the Triangular trend channel ATR indicator. SMCI ATR is 50, so it can move in wide range depending on the day. I know that SMCI has a lot of bad news factored into it's bearish price action lately. So this could be a big risk or big reward trade depending on what the market decides to do going forward here. But it is worth taking a look at the opportunity in my opinion.

4:1 ratio reward : risk trade idea
entry = 390
stop = 360
profit = 530

9/20 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 2,155
Call Volume Total 3,801
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.57
Put Open Interest Total 29,545
Call Open Interest Total 60,080
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.49

10/18 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 1,601
Call Volume Total 1,589
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.01
Put Open Interest Total 25,669
Call Open Interest Total 33,340
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.77

11/15 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 167
Call Volume Total 663
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.25
Put Open Interest Total 15,190
Call Open Interest Total 17,048
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.89

10 Sep

Nota

4hr Stochastic is rolling over. Might go down to 380

11 Sep

Nota

13 Sep

Nota

15 Okt

Nota

SMCI stochastic indicator double top. Short idea now
short = 47
profit = 37
stop = 50

4 Nov

Nota

Short from 47 to 27 went beyond all technical analysis. Now that SMCI is 25 my speculation is the risk is to the upside. I wouldn't short it anymore heading into earnings. If anything a hedge trade would make sense.

SMCI options data:
11/15/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 85,989
Call Volume Total 60,449
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.42
Put Open Interest Total 313,788
Call Open Interest Total 372,030
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.84