Not going to lie. Today was a rough trading day for me.
After a full month of feeling in the zone and catching both upside and downside moves, I had a pretty large loss today trying to short the S&P thinking we'd go down (I mean to be fair, I was right premarket - down over 1% but didn't anticipate a bounce).
All that to say, the day made me reassess market structures across asset classes and I realized that the move down was just a fake out in a consolidation pattern and that we're likely to head higher. I was looking at smaller timeframes and while there were head and shoulders patterns all over the place, none of them materialized and the bounced higher off their downtrend lines. Then I zoomed out.
If you look at the chart of
SOL, it actually looks extremely bullish. It's been consolidating in a bullish flag since the middle of January and looks poised to break out. On top of that, it's consolidating outside of the downtrend line.
I think the final target of this move is $111 (or strech target $135 -50% retracement), and while I know that sounds extremely bullish (for me in a bear market), I think price can get there just because of how oversold it was and how that would take us into the midpoint of the breakdown. I don't think getting up there would be that crazy.
I took a position here at $24.60. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
After a full month of feeling in the zone and catching both upside and downside moves, I had a pretty large loss today trying to short the S&P thinking we'd go down (I mean to be fair, I was right premarket - down over 1% but didn't anticipate a bounce).
All that to say, the day made me reassess market structures across asset classes and I realized that the move down was just a fake out in a consolidation pattern and that we're likely to head higher. I was looking at smaller timeframes and while there were head and shoulders patterns all over the place, none of them materialized and the bounced higher off their downtrend lines. Then I zoomed out.
If you look at the chart of
SOL, it actually looks extremely bullish. It's been consolidating in a bullish flag since the middle of January and looks poised to break out. On top of that, it's consolidating outside of the downtrend line.I think the final target of this move is $111 (or strech target $135 -50% retracement), and while I know that sounds extremely bullish (for me in a bear market), I think price can get there just because of how oversold it was and how that would take us into the midpoint of the breakdown. I don't think getting up there would be that crazy.
I took a position here at $24.60. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
Nota
There's a chance I might be a little early on this. If we lose support here instead of bouncing $23.40 (close below), then I might exit and wait till price reaches $19-20 before reentering.Nota
There should be a bounce that lets us out if we can't break above the highs. If it rejects resistance again and can't break out, that might setup a move lower first.Either way targets are still the same, will just wait for a better entry
Nota
I do think we just saw the lows and should head higher from here. The question is how high? If we can convincingly break the $27 area, then we should see continuation higher. However, if we stop in the $27 region, it would setup the potential for a rising wedge and a potential breakdown of this range.I think the breakdown would likely take us back to $17-19 range. Then all of the targets on the upside above would still be valid for continuation.
Nota
Chart looking more constructive. Same plan, break $27 convincingly and should see higher. I have a stop at $22.20 incase we get a move lower.Nota
Got the move lower and got stopped out. Will wait to see where to reenter. Still think the longer term idea is valid, but I like to catch lower entries if I can.Nota
Next levels down are $19.96, $17.14, $13.57. Let's see where we end up...Nota
Updated to account for correction before final targets: 
Nota
Thinking the correction starts now. $11.23 and lower will be my buy zoneNota
Still thinking we go much lower (down 40-50%) before we see higher.. The updated idea is still valid and even more likely now that SOL confirmed resistance at $24: Nota
Alright, we're at a crossroads, if SOL can break back above $24 and confirm it as support, then we'll see a continuation higher. If you look at the chart now, it seems to have formed a weird looking inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Think it has legs to at least $77.
But again, it needs to break above this resistance and confirm it as support first.
Nota
Alright, think SOL turns higher from here. Let's see if we can get to the $100+ targets.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.