SOYBEAN upward move play with Teucrium Soybean $SOYB trust fund

18 Apr 2021

(1) Futures Technical Analysis

Bullish triangle with RSI breakout.
Enought space for bullish move.

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/z/ZrOOwoOm.png

(2) SOYB trust fund

I've skipped the futures instrument, because I'm not like options on futures.
My choice for Soybean play is SOYB with relative high IVR value.
Optimal for Short Put Vertical strategy, similar TA here, with RSI pullback.

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/dQ0kzF3M.png

(3) Clear uptrend

Higher Lows Higher Highs.

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/i2sGUgwk.png

CONCLUSION:

Max profit: $685
Probability of Profit: 55%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 47%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200


Req. Buy Power: $1320 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 66 (ultra high)
Expiry: 35 days


Buy 10 SOYB May21' 20 Put
Sell 10 SOYB May21' 22 Put

Credit Put spread for 0.685cr each, because IVR is relative high.


Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% . No stress above $21.1 level.

Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~75%.

Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!


If you liked this article, check my other ideas.

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22 Apr 2021

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

My best ans fastest trade in this year.
Closed in auto profit.