SPX LT View May 2018
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Following the path
Nota
There is an OPEC meeting this week. There is a probability that a decision could be taken to drive oil prices higher which should support SPX. Retest if the highs possible thenNota
Transports iffy...Nota
Retesting the highs will squeeze the vast majority of people..markets tend to do that regularly. Lets seeNota
2 gaps above 2800s, FED meeting/ECB meeting. Crunch time into June 20..Nota
Crunch time coming next few sessions. The most pain for all is closing the gaps and reversing next few sessions..Nota
Still marginal higher high possible but not necessary... Quarter end next week and then 4 JUlyNota
Month/quarter end this week. From next week, QT rises to 40bn per month and combined FED+ECB will be negative liquidity for the first time. Also 2H we should be traversing into US growth slowdown. In other words all parts are should be in place for a 2nd leg downNota
1Q2018 GDP confirmed at 2.8% YOY. So this week we are completing 2Q and will be interesting to see whether US can muster 8 consecutive Q of whatever marginal acceleration in GDP to make it a record streak that has never happened before. MAGA awaits
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