In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10.
My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply.
100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough.
Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply.
100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough.
Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
Nota
2008-2009 is another economic contraction that I based my projections off of. Corporate profits fell over 45%.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.