Just looking at spx cash and IWM today, and thinking about the possible bull and bear traps which may occur. To me, the RSI is definitely hinting at a move up to 4500+ regardless of a move down here or tomorrow. However, I could be totally wrong, so please tread carefully. I will update this chart into the end of the week.
Nota
gap on SPX cash filled, it could go slightly higher but the target has been reached. Nota
on futures we're testing the recent uptrend channel. Nota
daily 18 almost reached, let's see if they can close under 4550 Nota
let me be clear again - the blue arrow may not happen AT ALL - but this area, daily 18 ma, previous support zone, and previous channel trendline - is all confluence of support. RSI could just keep dropping through it all.Nota
buyers showing up at the 18ma daily at 4455 area - SPX cash. C up still possible. Nota
18ma held for the close - again. A stab down to 4440 tomorrow with or before CPI would not surprise me if it's a B wave. I'll update before 830am and see what's going on. Have a good evening. Nota
Good morning, we're still above the 18ma daily. There are mixed signals in different indexes. SPX is down premarket while RTY is up 1 percent. One of these is going to catch up with the other. RSI is not telling me much - it's low but it can go much lower before a bounce. If we spike down after 830 and recover over 4470 I'd say that was bullish and the target of 4510 area will be reached today or tomorrow. if they spike down and recover only to reject at 4460 or so, then it's probably going to the lower BB on the daily chart at about 4380. Good luck! Nota
daily lower BB if this sells off is actually 4375 on SPX - Nota
RTY is looking like a clear ABC correction to me with C finishing before 830. Nota
support level reached - Nota
previous channel reached and support is holding (so far). C up still on the table as of now. Nota
if we move up, tech will likely outperform. AAPL has gaps above which probably get filled.Nota
close up view on futures - if 4470 breaks it will probably be support on any retest, I think a lot of eyes are on this level. If it breaks up it's bullish, if it fails and starts going lower it's bearish. Nota
RTY reached the fib target, not sure if it's finished with it's rally or not, but that's an important level to crack if they want to go higher. Nota
4460 now needs to hold - you can see it has been supporting price. A breakdown under and it probably becomes resistance. No decision by participants just yet. Nota
bulls are desperately trying to hold 4460, so far they are suceedingNota
4470 reached. Bulls need to break this level or else it's going to just look like a sideways consolidation before further selling. Sideways consolidations are often B waves before a bigger C down. Nota
if it's a B wave, this is the count. A break and hold above 4475 and it's going higher, but with RTY being the way it is it's looking like this right now. I can be wrong and will update if so. I have to go out for a few hours. Watch 4475 and 4460 levels. Under 4450 especially and they will lose the daily 18ma - that's bearish. Nota
breakout at open but now the previous resistance is being tested. If it fails, it will go down hard, if it gets above the last high it's likely bullish for the day. Going to be out until 4pm. Nota
brutal day for both sides, glad I missed most of it. We are still holding the 18ma at the close. It does look like we're in some sort of pennant. hard to say which way it breaks. Nota
indecision candle at the close on SPX cash. if we gap down below the 18ma tomorrow look for that area to be strong resistance. Nota
we're in an MA sandwich here, a break above or below should be very strong. Nota
good morning, we had more of a move up today, but the market looks tired here. If we start falling after the 8:30 numbers, it's possible we are in a larger B triangle, in which case, the 18ma should hold support again at 4450 and then finally breakdown. A break below the 18ma (4450) is the signal for bears, it has held every test for a week now. Nota
short term pattern looks complete here, we'll see at 8:30 Nota
qqq premarket at a strong resistance area Nota
nice reaction but if it's a triangle, don't expect any crash, it will stay choppy down to 4550. Other indexes - IWM for example, may melt down much harder. Nota
spy gap likely gets filled at open. Triangle doesn't look valid now. Strong resistance on spy at 450-451 area. Nota
Still abc for B wave, but the B wave is a running triangle - 4505-4510 still target. Nota
opening looks like a bear trap, watch out Nota
the original idea still looks correct. B should finish today if it's right. Nota
gap on IWM i mentioned has been filled. Nota
Gap on SPX cash is filled. Nota
15 minute rising wedge on SPX cash, one more push up would be fine. Nota
previous "topping" area as mentioned in the video as been reached. If it goes much farther than here I'm wrong but I think this B wave (if that is what it is) is done or close to being done. Nota
here's a structural trendline to watch overnight on futures. If they break below it will likely be resistance. Nota
Good morning, we're getting a reaction on futures but the rsi is low on small time frames, so it is possible they go slightly higher today, not sure just yet. Either way I think the market will be red by the end of the day. Nota
bears need to get price below this structural line on SPX cash before it gets interesting. Nota
nevermind, on SPY they are already under the line - any bounce to it at open may be an objective short Nota
on futures the rsi is very low and we're at a different trendline support. Bears need to be careful - a final move up to a doubletop is possible. It wouldn't shock me at this point to see the market push as hard as it can before the weekend to convince people to get out of short positions. Nota
futures broke, a small rally up at open is to be expected, but going higher than yesterday looks less possible now. Nota
spx cash session - watch for retest of line Nota
no bounce, longs are trapped and shorts are not able to enter comfortably. definitely having the feel of a larger C wave.
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18ma right below, expect a bounce but nothing major. I believe we'll break it today and end much lower. Nota
new video - I'll be away rest of today. have a good weekend!
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