Indeks S&P 500Panjang
$spx long term: neutral when 5.1k ticks
symmetrical and inversily symmetrical moves expected ...
we are entering a phase when the easier money is beyond us on a buy & hold strategy, imo holders may want to book gains above 5k, wait for a correction and if conditions favourable, market stabilizing and not panicing - the scenario confirming then get long ago towards 5900, at 5900 more volatility expected... some kind of flat in the same fashion we seen in 2011/13... very good for intermediate swing term eventually, literally, buy low sell high... the Time dimension on chart, need to be taken with a grain of salt... Market rose TWICE as fast from 2020 lows to here, as it did from 2009 in the same ammount of days... so we may either expect this wave to be faster in pace, or simply that it may burn more time after a big impulse. even though visually I'm prefering the faster pace option, it may not be descarded the time simmeytry may eventually play out and the overall length of wave B coming to be about the same as wave A, which would be, about 9 years, from 2009 to 2018... making this one last up to around 2028/29... as I said, and for now, I'm prefering the faster pace/shorter time hypothesis, but that's only that and nothing more, an hypothesis, still as such, accounting for a terminal high around 2026...
expecting a not-see-in-a-very-long-time type of bear market to ensue from the top, roughly calculated around 8/9
Note: I'm seeing many bear who assume the "mid-place" to have been the flat in 2014/15... this is indeed a possibility to keep in mind, and in case market starts hinting at a change in longer term caracther the above analysis should be discarded... that said, imo it is not likely that 2014/15 was the mid-place, as we have had a more significant, lengthy, violent and complex flat in 2018/20... assuming such volatility is not terminal, we prefer that flat as the mid-place for the overall count. Of course, if said volatility was terminal, we are in borrowed time and after 5k hits the crash will come without a doubt, but as I said before, I'm not prefering that view as of this moment... (for both "technical", "fundamental" & cyclical reasons).
KSPX ...
we are entering a phase when the easier money is beyond us on a buy & hold strategy, imo holders may want to book gains above 5k, wait for a correction and if conditions favourable, market stabilizing and not panicing - the scenario confirming then get long ago towards 5900, at 5900 more volatility expected... some kind of flat in the same fashion we seen in 2011/13... very good for intermediate swing term eventually, literally, buy low sell high... the Time dimension on chart, need to be taken with a grain of salt... Market rose TWICE as fast from 2020 lows to here, as it did from 2009 in the same ammount of days... so we may either expect this wave to be faster in pace, or simply that it may burn more time after a big impulse. even though visually I'm prefering the faster pace option, it may not be descarded the time simmeytry may eventually play out and the overall length of wave B coming to be about the same as wave A, which would be, about 9 years, from 2009 to 2018... making this one last up to around 2028/29... as I said, and for now, I'm prefering the faster pace/shorter time hypothesis, but that's only that and nothing more, an hypothesis, still as such, accounting for a terminal high around 2026...
expecting a not-see-in-a-very-long-time type of bear market to ensue from the top, roughly calculated around 8/9
Note: I'm seeing many bear who assume the "mid-place" to have been the flat in 2014/15... this is indeed a possibility to keep in mind, and in case market starts hinting at a change in longer term caracther the above analysis should be discarded... that said, imo it is not likely that 2014/15 was the mid-place, as we have had a more significant, lengthy, violent and complex flat in 2018/20... assuming such volatility is not terminal, we prefer that flat as the mid-place for the overall count. Of course, if said volatility was terminal, we are in borrowed time and after 5k hits the crash will come without a doubt, but as I said before, I'm not prefering that view as of this moment... (for both "technical", "fundamental" & cyclical reasons).
K
SPX ...Nota
chart cancelled! relate to my other charts 
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