SPX: Wyckoff Up Thrust

27 Nov 2019

Published via phone. Trade based on your risk tolerance.

• Red vertical line indicates possible time for when SPX/DXY reaches Up Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) phase.
  
• From the left, yellow vertical lines represent Buying Climax (BC), Secondary Test (ST), and Up Thrust (UT).
  
• Orange rays indicate typical resistance prices that coincide with a phase transition.
  
• Price typically breaks above BC price during UTAD.
  
• Teal rays help to corroborate Wyckoff pattern when compared to Wyckoff Distribution chart.
  
• If accurate, expect price to drop far below bottom teal ray once UTAD completes.
  

27 Nov 2019

Nota

Note: Don’t assume Spx and Dxy move inversely to each other. The charted price can rise or fall concurrently despite Spx and Dxy moving same direction. For instance, if both rise but Spx rises more then charted price will rise. If Dxy rises more then charted price will fall. Similarly, if Spx and Dxy both fall but Dxy falls more then charted price will rise. If Spx falls more then charted price will fall.

27 Nov 2019

Nota

Note: Also, Wyckoff does not dictate that price must reach UTAD. A downturn can happen without UTAD.

28 Nov 2019

Nota

Sharing a comment that I made in chat today:
Downturn could come as early as 2 Dec - Tvix 10-to-1 and Viix 5-to-1 reverse swaps. Historically, these swaps have come at market decision points with only bear traps. However, could be the real thing this time around.