SPX Breakdown or Another Push Higher?

12 Jul

Hi y'all thanks for tuning in! Here are a few written notes to sum up the video.

Indecision at New Highs
After breaking out to new all-time highs, SPX printed a doji on the weekly chart, signaling indecision. This hesitation could mark the start of digestion.

Still Structurally Bullish, but Extended
The weekly chart shows SPX is still holding trend structure, but price is notably extended from the 10EMA. Historically, when price moves too far from key short-term EMAs, it tends to reset either via time (sideways chop) or price (pullback).

Daily Chart Shows a Shelf Forming
On the daily chart, price has been consolidating just under the prior high with small-bodied candles. This is forming a “shelf” around the 6,260–6,280 zone. It’s acting like a pause, not a breakdown. Holding above this zone keeps the trend intact.

Pullback Risk Increases Below 6,232
If price loses 6,232 (last week's breakout area and short-term shelf), it increases the likelihood of a pullback toward the 6160 or even deeper toward the 5970. That lower zone also marks the bottom of the prior consolidation box from earlier this year.

Seasonality Reminder
Historically, July is strong in the first half, with weakness (if it shows up) arriving mid-to-late month. So far, price has tracked that seasonal strength. Any weakness from here would align with that typical timing.

29 Jul

Dagangan aktif

I'm not trading this but am just here to give an update. Right now the way price is acting on several of my stocks on my trading list, plus the structure on the S&P is giving me info that we may be rolling over. There may be an opportunity here for some shorts. The levels I listed in my latest newsletter are:

Pullback to the 10 EMA (~6320): A dip to the 10 wouldn’t be unusual. If price pulls back and holds that level, it would still keep the trend intact. This has been the shallow reset level for most of this run. From here we could chop around to digest the new high.

Deeper move to the 20 EMA (~6250): If we lose the 10, next up is the 20. This would represent a bit more weakness but still nothing dramatic. I’d expect some chop or pause around there if it gets tested.

Drop to the 50 SMA (~6130): That would be about a 4–5% pullback, which is well within normal range but would feel more like a “correction” in sentiment. This level lines up with the high from February before SPX’s correction.

A few red candles to the uptrend line (~6335) : We might just chop around somewhere between the inner and outer uptrend line, letting the moving averages catch up.

4 Ogo

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

When I made this video we were in that last little stretch of consolidation before another push higher that eventually got us to a new ATH. Today I close this idea with a strong bias we are going to roll over for a bit, or at least chop. Here are my notes from my newsletter as I prepare for different scenarios:

It’s possible to see buyers step in early in the week, causing a retest to the 10 and 20 EMAs, the top of the shaded box, and the underside of the broken uptrend line (~6300). If this happens, it is the type of clean structure you’d look for to get in on a short: a bounce that tests previous support and then rolls over. (Also note that a bounce may pop above the 10/20 EMA, but if it stays below the newly established high of 6,427, this will still support weakness by creating a lower high.)

Whether we retest or not, we may keep moving lower to the 50 SMA (~6130). This level is significant because it not only lines up with the January/February pivot high from earlier this year, but it is also the level of the 10 EMA on the weekly. The index may find support here, which would be about a 4.5% pullback from the high…still healthy, and nothing unusual for the trend we’re in.

If the selling accelerates, I’ve marked 6000 as another possible spot for support. This would be about a 7% pullback, and while still not a correction, it may feel like one. This level is the same as the 20 EMA on the weekly.

Coming off a strong run like the one we’ve had since April, a continued drop may feel sharp, but keep an eye on the levels I mentioned for potential areas of support. I’ll be watching how price interacts with each of these areas to get information for my next set of trades. Andddd if we do not decline, I will definitely be surprised…but all we can ever do is forecast the higher probability and let the charts do the talking.