S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7k

4 hari lalu

Since November of last year, the SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months.
Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched.

Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback.

Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon.

Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal.

In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook.
A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.