Bond yields absolutely did not confirm today's "rally." Despite the markets moving up, treasuries were bought. As demand for bonds increases, the price of those bonds goes up, which lowers the yield each bond returns (less interest "returned" for each dollar invested).
Thus, despite the equity market's gains today, which have the appearance of a "risk on" environment, bonds are telling us this is a "risk off" environment.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the bonds end up being right. A great example of this is at the beginning of the year's highs, during which bonds diverged from equities and continued to move lower. This divergence was warning us of a market correction:
In fact, bonds have been telling us that this entire rally off the March lows is nothing but a bear market rally because they have in no way confirmed the move:
Thus, despite the equity market's gains today, which have the appearance of a "risk on" environment, bonds are telling us this is a "risk off" environment.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the bonds end up being right. A great example of this is at the beginning of the year's highs, during which bonds diverged from equities and continued to move lower. This divergence was warning us of a market correction:
In fact, bonds have been telling us that this entire rally off the March lows is nothing but a bear market rally because they have in no way confirmed the move:
Nota
A good example of bonds not confirming a bear market rally is 2008, leading up to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. As equities continued to rally, bonds were warning us in advance by diverging and going lower:This is a bear market rally, and don't let anyone fool you into thinking otherwise.
Penafian
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.