Then I see SPX potentially reaching 2150 on the 20th of Jun15 (Quarterly Option Expiry) where the 10% correction may occur.
Tactical Trading for now.
Komen
pascal.lambrecht.522
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You see fed controlled and first rate hike will be September so we will see soon need corrections on the sp every time market react always five months before
pascal.lambrecht.522
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the decline will start next week to down slowing like i am seeing today but fed try to keep floating but time will change
pascal.lambrecht.522
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i see corrections middle of may around 15 may slow down starting to end of juni to reach 1900
YaKa
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Personally, i dont see that.
I see a correction to 2040 around the 10th of May> which could coincide with dax 11,200. If so both could go up until the 20th of June (killing option holders) and that would be a top around 2140/2150.
reluctantplumber
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YaKa what is the connection with the DAX & SP500?
YaKa
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it really depends on configs and other components like ukraine/greece/eurusd.
There is a relation for sure, it is changing over time also.
for instance, i can tell you that right now if sp500 falls to 2040 over 10days, dax will go hit 11,200.
and i can tell you that for dax to go reach 13000, we will need sp500 to reach 2200.
caputo.philip
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Good morning! I just wanted to take a moment and let you know that I appreciate all your work and study. We know the markets behave like a pendulum and they can not go up forever. I want to share with you what I heard from a very reliable source - a conversation between a Senator and a homeland security agent, it went something like this...Senator: Why is homeland buying 2 billion rounds of hollow points? Homeland: That's incorrect, we are buying 3 billion rounds of hollow point to contain the chaos after the market crash in the last quarter of 2016.
So my take on this conversation is that by the end of 2016 the market will have bottomed out from the inevitable crash. Looking at the last 2 crashes of 2000 and 2007 the downward movements took no longer than 24 months and 15 months respectively. Being conservative I would estimate that after the first rate hike by the FED the market will start its descent.
Keep up the great work!
YaKa
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Well, I am speechless:) Thank you for the feedback. You are surely right about one thing: strong corrections last 2 years. it is not clear to me where the next one will start. I see a correction of 20% somewhere after year end but i am not sure if this will lead to a last and powerful rally.
Your story re the senate: if what you are describing happens, they will need food, not bullets.