Stock feedback loop

2 Sep 2024

Stock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader.

Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior.

Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?

2 Sep 2024

Nota

//People have mental models, a perfect model that explains how markets work, so they can sleep tight. Models are just concepts that try to grasp complex unpredictable world. One example is 08 crisis or recent unexplainable VIX rally. --> in our balanced market perspective or perfect models -> a "crash" was impossible. System thinking view market as a eco system. Many warning signs gives probability.