ChartArt
Singkat

Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rally

FX:SPX500   Indeks S&P 500 untuk saham US tersenarai
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Pick your poison, I mean your favorite bubble:

  • real estate (Vancouver's housing bubble)
  • student loan debt
  • tech stocks and startup unicorns
  • bonds

I just picked some random news articles for each bubble. In case I forgot one major bubble please tell me in the comments.

Real estate: Chinese Media Warns Canada's Housing Crash Will Put U.S. To Shame
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/stephen-punwasi/canadian-housing-crash_b_11349292.html
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/House-Price-Index.php
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Case-Shiller-Composite-Home-Price-Indexes.php

The $1.3 Trillion Student Debt Bubble
http://marketrealist.com/2016/08/1-3-trillion-student-debt-bubble/
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/College-Tuition-and-Fees-130718

Tech: We've officially reached the last stage of the unicorn boom
http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-investment-in-uber-last-stage-of-unicorn-bubble-2016-6

US hedge fund giant warns of 'biggest bond bubble in history'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/bonds/us-hedge-fund-giant-warns-of-biggest-bond-bubble-in-history/
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-hedge-fund-honcho-paul-singer-is-calling-this-the-biggest-bond-bubble-ever-2016-08-18


Here are two bearish scenarios: A "the pullback" and B "the crash":

Short entry A: 2175 (or 2185) points
Target A: 2025 points

Short entry B: 2160 points
Target B: 1850 points

Stop loss: 2215-2200 points
Just discovered a pattern on the daily chart which looks to me similar to a bearish diamond top:



"Downward 69% of the time"
http://thepatternsite.com/diamondt.html

A scoring system for diamond tops:
http://thepatternsite.com/scdiamonds.html
Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
S&P 500 futures intra-day after the close look to me as though this diamond top might break to the upside. If not on Thursday could be the end of the current choppy sideways ranging nonsense to nowhere - when the end of the diamond pattern would be reached one day before the very important start of the Jackson Hole meeting (where Yellen might give the market new clues for a direction).

Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
I was right 20 hours ago. The diamond top pattern broke to the upside today. It was quite a fast move which futures started after the close and before the European open and created a high around 2193.4.

But this new "mini-breakout" spike was sold off and fizzled again (with roughly only one hour left to the close of spot as of now:
Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
Same idea, but with candlesticks. Plus I added two rectangles just for fun:

Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
Many traders liked my chart, so here is the 1 hour chart:

Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
... and the daily chart again (with some symmetric improvements):

Balas
There is the new car loan bubble which is basically the same thing as the 2008 housing bubble (Sub prime... etc) but with cars.
+1 Balas
ChartArt joshbam177
You are right about the car loan / auto lending bubble. It was discussed a few weeks ago on John Oliver:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2eDJnwz_s
Balas
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