SPX500 Short at M5 supply zone due to tariffs uncertainty

8 Apr

Market overview and macro outlook

Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs
1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise.
2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows.
3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the upside, and we should be looking for downside trades now

Upcoming news
1. FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty
2. US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD
- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
3. US Core PPI on Fri - TBD
- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut

Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here.

Technical View

At a higher time frame, I want to see price hit 5500 for a short position then.
In the short term of today and tomorrow, I want to see prices hit 5267 for me to take a Short position - there's a Supply zone there from the M5 TF.
SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
Execution
1. Limit order
- SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
- TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
- TF: Close limit order before CPI or PPI reports. If no entry by then

Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 2
WR: 0%
Profit: -1.1R

Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.

8 Apr

Dagangan aktif

Trade entered. This is a strong move up to my entry area. May hit SL quickly if the momentum of the tariff negotiation hopes sustains

8 Apr

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Adjusted TP reached. 3R profit in this trade idea.