Good afternoon everyone,
What a week!
As promised I have been posting my trade plans and updates etc. So now that my TPs have come to fruition, let's see where we are.
But first, recap!
SO our math 99% targets held true to their 99%ness and gave massive gains, just massive gains all around.
Hopefully some of you traded it with me because it was good!
Everything (except, as expected, TSLA, has taken it off the table):
SPY:
DIA:
ES1!:
And pretty much the rest including IWM, BA, and even BTC:
But BTC was pretty early in the game.
So what's next?
So, as I have said before, I am not a swinger by nature. I only like to swing those high probability plays (i.e. 99% targets and such).
Looking at the totality of the circumstances, we are actually approaching short territory; however, a little more upside is possible.
We also have that overhead gap that could be filled as well.
If we reference the VIX on the daily using Z-Score (this is actually a strategy someone informed me about and I plan to do a little info video on it because its actually really awesome, so kudos to this individual who told me about it!), we see that we are still very much in a "buy" vix area, which means "short SPY" area:
You can actually see VIX is double bottoming here and its almost an identical setup to the green arrow area.
So what does it mean?
It means considering short positions here is not wrong.
I noticed that we removed the 99% targets leading into 2, semi-big news releases. PCE and Jobeless claims. Lately these have caused the market to move so I think its a bit .. shall I say.....suspish ... that the market has gotten rid of all its bullish targets leading into some big news events. Essentially what this has done is, it has given us no reason or assurance in bullishness leading into these news releases, so please be cautious here with longs.
That said, upside momentum is supported, especially if we look at VIX pivot/turning points overlayed on SPY:
Target area would be where the green arrow is pointing, which corresponds to a previous reversal area.
What am I doing here?
Nothing, this isn't a setup really.
I am probably leaning to enter into a small SPXS position before EOD, but very small and with the expectation that this is going to be the start of a short the rally season leading into 2023.
Otherwise, just playing the daily math levels.
And those are my thoughts!
Housekeeping and announcement:
BTC Analysis: So I was promising a BTC analysis hopefully before Christmas but its not happening. Its too much data to sort through and I am also drastically trying to prepare for Christmas. So that will probably come out in the new year (scary, this year went fast!).
Time Series Analysis: I know I know, you guys want it. I have been making the charts and the Z-Score stuff and ran the analysis in SPSS to do the write up and have notes, I just haven't gotten to writing it. I will try to write this up leading into Christmas. Probably my Christmas Eve thing.
Z-Score buy and sell indicator: Will be released with the time series post likely, Christmas eve as my gift to you.
Special announcement: So, after thought, I think I may join the dark side and offer a subscription service ;). It kind of goes against why I got into this, but the amount of years and effort that went into developing math models and stuff, I feel like its time to maybe share a bit. The amount of time and energy that goes into doing a single math model is extremely labour intensive and takes time. So by offering these out, my "research" can be crowd funded with the advantage that those participating can reap the rewards of the inventions and discoveries. So, going into the new year, I will be releasing a sub-based thing where you can gain access to my math based indicators, models and projections, as well as have access to real time 99% targets for yourself. There will be other perks, but the purpose is to permit me to fund more of what I like, which is doing math based research on the market, while helping people make a bit of money along the way.
That is it everyone!
As always, leave your questions, comments and everything else in between below!
Safe trades ahead and take care!
What a week!
As promised I have been posting my trade plans and updates etc. So now that my TPs have come to fruition, let's see where we are.
But first, recap!
SO our math 99% targets held true to their 99%ness and gave massive gains, just massive gains all around.
Hopefully some of you traded it with me because it was good!
Everything (except, as expected, TSLA, has taken it off the table):
SPY:
DIA:
ES1!:
And pretty much the rest including IWM, BA, and even BTC:
But BTC was pretty early in the game.
So what's next?
So, as I have said before, I am not a swinger by nature. I only like to swing those high probability plays (i.e. 99% targets and such).
Looking at the totality of the circumstances, we are actually approaching short territory; however, a little more upside is possible.
We also have that overhead gap that could be filled as well.
If we reference the VIX on the daily using Z-Score (this is actually a strategy someone informed me about and I plan to do a little info video on it because its actually really awesome, so kudos to this individual who told me about it!), we see that we are still very much in a "buy" vix area, which means "short SPY" area:
You can actually see VIX is double bottoming here and its almost an identical setup to the green arrow area.
So what does it mean?
It means considering short positions here is not wrong.
I noticed that we removed the 99% targets leading into 2, semi-big news releases. PCE and Jobeless claims. Lately these have caused the market to move so I think its a bit .. shall I say.....suspish ... that the market has gotten rid of all its bullish targets leading into some big news events. Essentially what this has done is, it has given us no reason or assurance in bullishness leading into these news releases, so please be cautious here with longs.
That said, upside momentum is supported, especially if we look at VIX pivot/turning points overlayed on SPY:
Target area would be where the green arrow is pointing, which corresponds to a previous reversal area.
What am I doing here?
Nothing, this isn't a setup really.
I am probably leaning to enter into a small SPXS position before EOD, but very small and with the expectation that this is going to be the start of a short the rally season leading into 2023.
Otherwise, just playing the daily math levels.
And those are my thoughts!
Housekeeping and announcement:
BTC Analysis: So I was promising a BTC analysis hopefully before Christmas but its not happening. Its too much data to sort through and I am also drastically trying to prepare for Christmas. So that will probably come out in the new year (scary, this year went fast!).
Time Series Analysis: I know I know, you guys want it. I have been making the charts and the Z-Score stuff and ran the analysis in SPSS to do the write up and have notes, I just haven't gotten to writing it. I will try to write this up leading into Christmas. Probably my Christmas Eve thing.
Z-Score buy and sell indicator: Will be released with the time series post likely, Christmas eve as my gift to you.
Special announcement: So, after thought, I think I may join the dark side and offer a subscription service ;). It kind of goes against why I got into this, but the amount of years and effort that went into developing math models and stuff, I feel like its time to maybe share a bit. The amount of time and energy that goes into doing a single math model is extremely labour intensive and takes time. So by offering these out, my "research" can be crowd funded with the advantage that those participating can reap the rewards of the inventions and discoveries. So, going into the new year, I will be releasing a sub-based thing where you can gain access to my math based indicators, models and projections, as well as have access to real time 99% targets for yourself. There will be other perks, but the purpose is to permit me to fund more of what I like, which is doing math based research on the market, while helping people make a bit of money along the way.
That is it everyone!
As always, leave your questions, comments and everything else in between below!
Safe trades ahead and take care!
Premium indicators and content have launched! Get access at: www.patreon.com/steversteves
