Bearish Double Top on SPY Day Chart

9 Feb 2022

I find it odd that the price has moved in a way that suggests the market is not worried about the CPI numbers tomorrow, considering how skittish and fearful things have been the past month or so. I think the market was pricing in inflation and the coming response from the Fed in January, but earnings season took over and became the main driver of price action. I don't think the euphoria of earnings has faded yet and it has helped shift sentiment to be far more optimistic than I think is warranted. The fact that the price gapped up this morning without any real catalyst and ran right up to a fairly strong resistance level, which is also potentially the top of this pattern and also a key fib level, is a set-up for a hard drop tomorrow in my opinion.

If inflation ends up being lower than expected, this idea (and my position) will get blown to pieces but at least direction for the next few weeks will be clear.

10 Feb 2022

Nota

Well that worked out pretty well. Took profits of 2x my initial cost and letting the rest ride, I suspect the party is just getting started.

11 Feb 2022

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

I would like to sincerely thank Mr. Putin for his efforts today, please don't start WW3 though.

I think the markets reaction today was a bit extreme so I scaled out of my position throughout the bloodbath and will look for a new setup next week. More downside is probably coming but a day or two of green is not unlikely.