If a recession really is looming, what are the levels to watch?
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Taking a look at the SPY on a monthly chart can really put things into perspective. Some warning signs about a possible recession looming got me thinking about what levels to the downside would interest me should the market enter into a recession and begin to head down. Here is what I came up with:
207-215: This level was a prior resistance level back in 2015 that we eventually broke through and briefly flipped to support in late 2016 before rally higher. In the event of a pull back, we'd like to see this level hold again should it be tested.
173-183: Throughout 2014-2016, there was a lot of wicks into these region, indicating that buyers were willing to step in and defend these levels. Circumstances may be different on the way back down, but this another level I am watching.
147-157: This level has a lot of confluence, and is VERY interesting. It was the peak before the dot com bubble pop and before the market crashed in 2008. The percentage drop from the current peak (302.23) to this level (150) is about a 50% drop, which is in line with both of the prior two market crashes (which were between 50-58% from peak to bottom.) Circumstances are very different today then they were back then, so I don't see this level as a likely target during a recession, but it is on my radar as a possibility.
MA Guide (All Monthly for this chart):
50 MA in Green.
100 MA in Yellow.
200 MA in Red.
I do not have a crystal ball that will tell me where the price will land during a recession and or a market crash, but based on prior price action and what the TA tells me, these 3 levels are worth watching in the event of a downturn.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
-As a side note, if you would like to support a college kid and the TA I do, I accept BTC/ETH/LTC/USDC donations. Any and all donations are greatly appreciated and really do help me out! Thank you to all you who donate. :)
BTC: 3F13946JWfNskLDu2oi3FTRV65FV9yK7U8
ETH: 0xe032430f158966F4118af917b5F1e024949697bB
LTC: MVDbAhm2yoyCzeRnayMN61oZp75MZ5SZVj
USDC: 0x1F6d47a9330897d6043886d64738A2E255dd0b92
207-215: This level was a prior resistance level back in 2015 that we eventually broke through and briefly flipped to support in late 2016 before rally higher. In the event of a pull back, we'd like to see this level hold again should it be tested.
173-183: Throughout 2014-2016, there was a lot of wicks into these region, indicating that buyers were willing to step in and defend these levels. Circumstances may be different on the way back down, but this another level I am watching.
147-157: This level has a lot of confluence, and is VERY interesting. It was the peak before the dot com bubble pop and before the market crashed in 2008. The percentage drop from the current peak (302.23) to this level (150) is about a 50% drop, which is in line with both of the prior two market crashes (which were between 50-58% from peak to bottom.) Circumstances are very different today then they were back then, so I don't see this level as a likely target during a recession, but it is on my radar as a possibility.
MA Guide (All Monthly for this chart):
50 MA in Green.
100 MA in Yellow.
200 MA in Red.
I do not have a crystal ball that will tell me where the price will land during a recession and or a market crash, but based on prior price action and what the TA tells me, these 3 levels are worth watching in the event of a downturn.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
-As a side note, if you would like to support a college kid and the TA I do, I accept BTC/ETH/LTC/USDC donations. Any and all donations are greatly appreciated and really do help me out! Thank you to all you who donate. :)
BTC: 3F13946JWfNskLDu2oi3FTRV65FV9yK7U8
ETH: 0xe032430f158966F4118af917b5F1e024949697bB
LTC: MVDbAhm2yoyCzeRnayMN61oZp75MZ5SZVj
USDC: 0x1F6d47a9330897d6043886d64738A2E255dd0b92
Nota
Here is a comparison based on the last 2 downturns in bar lengths: Nota
Comment: Here is a comparison based on the last 2 downturns in percentages: 
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