SPY - Wednesday, November 4

3 Nov 2020

Bulls showed up today. We've pierced thru a couple significant resistance levels in the past couple days. But will it continue? If we're going to go long at this point we want to see a big volume candle bust thru the cloud, pullback and bounce to continue the trend that's been developing over the past couple days. Momentum has been steadily rising over the past few days, which has made me want to put on my bull hat, but note the OBV divergence across the day. This is not what you would normally see when price is ready to break out. Momentum may be artificially propping these prices up. If you cycle down to the lower time frames, pay attention to when price action runs away from you, as it did in the last 5 minutes of todays trading session. There was some bullish buying, but the sellers aren't gone yet. Might need to range at these prices for another week while the VIX cools down before we see headway into the 440s, otherwise, expect a blowout top with a quick breakdown to the past week lows. The bounce at $335 was enough to get me to close my short position, but I still want to see some evidence that prices can hold at these levels before going long.

4 Nov 2020

Nota

Are we all shorting this at $351?

5 Nov 2020

Nota

Pretty bullish price action today. Expecting small dip in the AM before we bottle rocket above this wedge pattern to retest ATH's.