This is a typical bullish Wolve Wave that is on the final leg down currently. Expecting whipsaw reversal starting as soon as tomorrow, but main bullish price action will be around June 15 on the full moon (literally howl at the moon).
Expecting the yellow trajectory to play out and complete EW wave (5) around 430. The chart contains all the info you need to know, but there are a lot more dynamics at play here, mathematically/statistically, that have led me to feel highly confident about this.
- initial target is around 421-422, from there will retest ~415 and then make our way to 429-430 - the goal target is 448by end of June...and this makes sense with the confluence of wolve wave 1-4 projection and the ADX breakout "open long" target (stop loss 394) - that DMI is low key bullish af, this is re-accumulation off the May 20 lows in 380s; stochastic RSI oversold and will give the escape velocity needed to reverse here and make explosive move to the upside
I'm playing the SPY June 17 411.00 calls and the June 27 429.00 calls, but this is not financial advice.
I am fully expecting the price to follow this yellow trajectory, so when you replay the bars at the end of June they'll perfectly coincide with this path, hah.
No Cap, Prof. Lupin
Komen
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Trash it. Posted new idea with most likely pattern to end intermediate (4) since this was invalidated. Increasing volatility to come.
@otwa2113 that’s good but the thing is it’s right under the previous candle and also broke the support.
JerryManders
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@Nor1gt, I'm seeing convincing ratios, which lead me to believe start of wave 5 is plausible here: w(2) retraced -0.626527051 of w(1) - w(2) was a flat that occured on smaller time frame; w(3) extended 1.773123909 of w(1) - w(3) was an extended impulse w(4) retraced -0.524934383 of w(3) - w(4) was a triangle with c of (4) completed today.... the method I use to calculate w(5) isn't conventional, but I consider the ratios as a linear system of 2 retracements and 2 extensions off base waves 1 and 3, then calculate (5) such that the determinant of the 2x2 matrix from the linear system < 0, indicating a change in orientation. the ABC corrective wave following (5) will then account for the change in orientation... and I have had good results with this method. 431.81 is the level at which the determinant = 0 from here, so expecting w(5) to extend slightly beyond that. We'll see.
JerryManders
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@Nor1gt, last thing, because I know where you are coming from.. it looks bearish that's why I said "contrarian" in the title... but the wolfe wave here is a combination of the final extension of (3) and all of wave (4). The wolfe wave has its own count of 5, starting at the point of the thick grey projection (thats <1> of the wolfe wave), <5> of the wolfe wave = w(4) of the EW count and is expected to go under support from the channel to be bullish. Which it did today. From here the <1> - <4> projection becomes the target and the resistance. The confluence of this aligning with the projected w(5) of the EW count is why I love this setup.
Nor1gt
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Thank you for you’re time and sharing you’re opinion, I just love to play the trend direction and I just follow the basic instructions (not bearish or bullish), to make it easier to find the trend direction , what I believe is it was in a rectangular patter which broke down and hit some stop losses,and also the MACD is turning bearish any way good luck with you’re trading.👍