Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

🏢 U.S. Corp Buybacks Set to Propel Stocks
Citadel Securities expects U.S. companies to repurchase roughly $1 trillion of stock in 2025. With the blackout period ending in August, buybacks—historically strong in July, the stock market’s best month—could bolster valuations

⚖️ Fed Independence Debate Intensifies
President Trump’s continued criticism of Chair Powell has already weakened confidence in Federal Reserve autonomy. The fallout shows up in a weaker dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations—though stocks have remained resilient

🇺🇸 Immigration Rollback Sparks Economic Concern
The rescinding of Temporary Protected Status for ~900,000 immigrants could remove up to 1.1 million workers from the labor force. Analysts warn of potential stagflation risks, with GDP growth potentially down 0.3–0.4 percentage points and labor-market tightening ahead

💵 Massive T-Bill Issuance Incoming
Following the debt-ceiling deal, the Treasury plans over $1 trillion in T-bill issuance in the next 18 months. Money-market funds are expected to absorb much of it, influencing short-term rates and cash-market dynamics

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, July 19:

8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly figure on new unemployment filings—a real-time indicator of labor-market resilience.

8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June)
Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes; key for gauging housing-market health.

All Day Events:
Ongoing corporate buybacks entering open window
Treasury auctions and T-bill issuance updates

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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