SPY Reaches 2-year Final Target #3 (670) and Drops

10 Okt

Trading Fam,

I promised a video update this week. However, due to unforeseen issues with my streaming app, I have opted for a static post instead. Apologies but I'll go through updates on our chart, explaining where we are, and where we might be headed next.

We'll start here with the weekly. I want you to focus in on the yellow Elliot Wave pattern. All along I have stated that I am no Elliot Wave expert. However, I seem to have gotten it right this time ...at least so far.

The first wave starts around Dec. of 2018. We dipped harshly during COVID and that completed our wave (2). The third wave is often long and extended and we hit our top in Jan. 2022. Wave (4) then gave us our dip and the start of our Cup and Handle seen in pink. I don't know much but I do know wave (5) is often equal or greater than (3). I started looking for a final target for wave (5). My Cup and Handle soon offered that target to me.

So now let's zoom into the daily:



You can see Target #1 was nearly hit. You'll remember I sold here due to nearly touching that white uptrend. I waited for the dip back into support (RED) and re-entered focusing in on Target #2 which also coincided with price hitting that white trendline and being rejected. We bounced on that red support again and double-topped. This time we broke through our red support and came all the way down to another support which I expected to hold (white). It did. I then knew we were on our way to Target #3. But I've stated all along that I did not think we'd break back above that previous red support which now has become massive resistance. So far, I have been right. The Cup and Handle pattern also gave me that 670-700 target. Nailed that as well.

Could we go higher? Absolutely. That's what blow-off tops do. They often surprise the market with one final wild ride. Everyone piles in out of FOMO. And I have expected a final price of up to $700 SPY all along. Will this happen? Remains to be seen. But my experience has taught me that we are near the top. And since, I am satisfied with a price of $670 being that this is the beginning of my third and final target box, I pulled most of my personal money out a few days ago. My main goal now is to avoid greed and preserve capital. That is what I will do until the market tells me otherwise.

I want to take one final look at our monthly chart:



See that thick white trendline that starts in 2009? That is the beginning of our secular bull market. This next part is going to sound insane but that is often the case when you read what I write, we could technically drop all the way down to SPY 300, over 55% from where we are right now, and STILL be in a bull market! Can you imagine how many traders will start to scream that the world is ending? And yet, technically the market will remain bullish. Crazy to think about, but definitely worth noting.

✌️Stew

12 Okt

Nota

600-610 is where I look to re-enter if I'm feeling bold

12 Okt

Nota

Trump is at war with the Fed. The battle will continue. This is what many other "expert" traders are not seeing. He's doing his darnedest rn to manipulate the market down while the gov't is also shutdown and on its knees. The goal is to get JPOW to cave. IYKYK. If we get to 600 and there are still no signs the FED will reduce rates further than currently expected, then you should count on more shenanigans as he will probably attempt to drop it down to 563-570 with some more shocking tariff headlines. As already mentioned, if the SPY dropped all the way down to 300, we'd still technically remain in a secular bull market since 2009. Be prepared. Since Trump has no power or authority over the Fed, he will use other means of persuasion at his disposal. This you all should see clearly now. It is a story most other traders are seeming to miss for reasons unknown. It all seems fairly apparent to me and is why I am able to call the market so accurately.