SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?

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What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching:

🟩 Support zones
📉 Resistance levels
🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour
🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts
📌 Important notes
⚠️ My current bias

Let’s jump in:

🟩 Support Zones:

Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly.

Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job.

📉 Resistance

SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time.

🕯️ Weekly Candle Context

That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top.

🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things

There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance.

But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech.

So the big question is:

Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy?

That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions.

📌 Things I’m Watching:

A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias.

If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507.

⚠️ Current Bias

Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle.

The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance.

Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.

Penafian

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