Panjang

I'm still too shy to go short

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And I'm usually a perma bear. But just as a basic update, these are the price points that I'm looking for, and the trends that I'm following. There is also a low of 360-368 that I believe will mark the short term bottom. The one thing to remember about all this is -- we are not in a recession yet! That's not optimism, that's just saying usually the market is late to react and so while the real bottom is possibly years away, this is simply more reaction to the Fed tightening and has nothing to do with an actual recession. History tells us that the market won't react to a recession until we're like 1 quarter into the thing, and won't recover until we're already digging ourselves out. That's not an exact science, but basically if we had an organic forming recession with no China shutdowns and no government tightening, the market would still be flying high in ignorance. I think cautious optimism is the right outlook here as a contrarian to the rampant pessimism now. But timing remains hard and illusive.

Nota

I hate that they waited till today but its really make or break time. We had some hesitation almost 2 months ago and we went lower, and now we're on another plateau looking for direction. If we find traction, we're looking to $400-$408, otherwise we'll see $358.

Nota

Nota

Next resistance to break through would be $388

Nota

How its looking now, almost clear as day -- hit resistance around Tuesday/394, double top and then fall to the end of the month, after which, a violent comeback. Why? I have no clue, but that's what the technical indicators clearly indicate.

Nota

Hmm, the $396 level seems very significant from a while back. The orange lines are relatively artificial, otherwise itd suggest a wedge that we'd fall

Nota

Welp... almost time to bail

pogicraft

I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.

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