SPY | Liquidity Engineering or Reversal?

190
🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC

“Major buyers are lurking... but will the market deliver the fill they want?” That’s the question.

We’re currently watching a tactical rejection near 598.22, the 0.886 Fib retracement of the prior high-volume breakdown. This level historically serves as a liquidity sweep zone before decision-making candles emerge.

🔍 Technical + Volume Profile:
Liquidity Zones:

Resistance: 594.4–598.2 = prior supply + Fib confluence

Demand Zones:

567.5 → anchored VWAP / trend channel midpoint

559.3 → 0.618 Fib + major positioning cluster

Volume: Distribution volume into prior highs = possible short-term exhaustion

EMA Structure: Bullish stack but extended from mean; room for reversion to VWAP bands.

🧠 Macro Overlay:
Risk Events: Debt ceiling headlines are muted, but upcoming PCE inflation and labor data could dictate short-term gamma positioning.

Options Skew: OTM put volume rising; VIX curve remains steep in front-end → suggesting hedging or prep for pullback.

Macro Setup: Real yields are sticky, and the Fed is not signaling dovish pivot yet — any continuation will need confirmation via breadth and credit spreads.

🛡️ Risk Framework:
Reclaim 598.2: Bias flips bullish with upside into 613–644

Break Below 567.5: Opens doors for deeper retest at 559 or even 533

Neutral Range: 567.5–594.5 → Let market structure show intent before deploying size.

📌 Game Plan:
Let price come to you. Patience > Prediction. Market is deciding whether to reward early breakout traders or punish late longs via mean reversion. Watch the 567–559 cluster—that’s where smart money may reload.


🔗 #SPY #MacroTrading #VolumeAnalysis #RiskManagement #Fibonacci #Wavervanir #SP500 #LiquidityMap

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