SPY has completed a 5 wave sequence.
-Wave 1 & Wave 5 Extended
-Correction Wave B went above the terminal point of Wave 5.
-Elliot calls this an irregular correction and can be subject to "Double Retracement". Double Retracement corrects Wave 5 and then the whole wave sequence.
I don't think we could see a double retracement due to economic conditions.
Chart:
Catalyst:
1. White House
2. Geo-politics
Will update.
-AB
Nota
Potential Headline Catalyst Down:1. Kavanaugh
2. Mueller
3. Midterms
4. Big Tech - Breaking News about Data Collection methods by FB, TWTR, and Google.
Nota
Irregular corrections usually appear after wave 5 of a cycle, and would correct the entire five waves according to Elliott’s approach to this phenomenon. The first move after the end of wave 5 would be a three wave affair and is labeled as Wave A. The Wave B that follows will also be in three sub waves but the price will exceed the top of Wave 5. Thereafter, we will get a normal Wave C made up of five sub waves.Nota
Wave 5 extension= 16.47%Nota
A bad storm is brewing.Nota
Prior Super Cycle Correction was a Flat.Nota
We are in the beginning of a new Super Cycle.Nota
Other headline catalyst: -FISA Declassifiation
Nota
Implemented an Put option strategy to protect portfolio.Nota
Looking ready to drop...Nota
New Headline about to drop?Nota
Narratives matter...Nota
These Sub-Waves will provide the bigger picture.Extending S-3?
Nota
Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be completed.Nota
Wave Analysis and Fibonacci are used the same when going down.Nota
Extending Sub-Wave 3Nota
Reminder: Extending Waves = Impossible to know what level they stop.Nota
4.618 is a key level for me.Nota
If we break 4.618, support starts around $250.Nota
So far, not good sub-wave 3 traveled over 320% of S1 & S2.Nota
Double Retrace:1. Retrace Extension
2. 5th Wave Sequence
Nota
No signs of finding support...Nota
Reminder: Wave A & Wave B Sub-Wave were both shown in the WEEKLY chart!Nota
We are clearly at an inflection point in history. Do we continue with an old Fiat money system?
Do we continue to let a privately held bank govern monetary policy?
Nota
What caused the last ‘recession’?Nota
“The real cause of the Great Recession lay not in the housing market but in the misguided monetary policy of the Federal Reserve” - “The Fed can control NGDP through its monetary policy, and as NGDP fell in 2008, the Fed should have lowered interest rates rapidly. If that proved insufficient, it should have increased the money supply through quantitative easing. Instead, the Fed, terrified of inflation, kept interest rates too high for too long—causing NGDP to fall even further.” -
Source: ForeignAffairs.com
Nota
Bogey Man - InflationNota
If 270 is broken, next stop is 250.Nota
Still got more to go...Nota
S3 Extended Wave A was 3
Nota
Friday: Correction SequenceMonday: S5
Nota
66 Days to form Wave ANota
170 days to form Wave BNota
$240 looks to be the Terminal Point of the correction.Nota
Correction will not be completed until AFTER 2019.Nota
Best SHORT: wait till S2 completes and short higher degree Wave 3Nota
Clarification: Correction will not be completed until Jan. 2019.Nota
Wave 2 Terminal projection: $288Nota
S1Terminal Projection: $273Nota
S5 Complete: Oct. 18Nota
Yellow = Lower Degree Teal = Higher Degree
Nota
We need to watch higher degree Wave 5 very carefully and be on watch for "Double Retracement."Nota
Don’t fall for the head-fakeNota
S5 still needs to be completedNota
S=sub-wavesNota
Here comes the reversal...Nota
Not sure what the headline will be or maybe it’s an earnings report but this will fade in After-HoursNota
Netflix? Pop and Drop?Nota
Will Netflix pop hold?Nota
Netflix is still in a Correction...Nota
Here comes wave 2 back upNota
Sub-Wave 5 hit target exactlyNota
I would use this rally to exit any positions you don't want to hold before Wave 3 down begins...Nota
Wait till $282 then Short.Nota
Looks like we WILL see Double RetracementNota
Wave 1:Sub-Wave 3 Extended
Sub-Wave 5 Extended
Nota
Wave 5 Extension Target is between $259 & $255Nota
Double Retrace is in PlayNota
Don't Sell here! Wait for Wave 2 to get out of any position you don't want to hold.Nota
Pretty Confident Wave 1 is complete...Nota
Indicators look goodNota
.618 is the Key HurdleNota
Election Day?Nota
5th Wave will be a big test...Nota
Complex Correction implies a strong move higher.Nota
$284 is a key level.Nota
Starting to fail...Nota
Watch for the reversalNota
Wave 2 hit target almost exactly...Nota
Target was $282.Nota
Above: The Turn.Nota
SPX Chart is a little scary!We have clearly completed Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4.
We are in the 5th Wave...
The question is are we more towards the beginning of Wave 5 or more towards the end?
Nota
Above in Pink shows the most recent Wave Sequence.Nota
260-250 are Critical LevelsIf Broken look to 210 for support...
Nota
Doesn’t look good...Nota
Note Wave A. Wave C needs 5 sub-waves.
Nota
Very inclined to double retrace...Probably nothing will be safe...
Nota
Sub-Wave 5 is a tell to double retrace...Nota
If Sub-Wave 5 breaks S1 & S2 in meaningful way we will likely see new lows.Nota
Wave C Time Est. = 210 days...Nota
Shaping up to be a real blood bath...Nota
What brand new market is forming? Where is the money going?
Nota
$218 Target for Double RetraceNota
Russell MAY be ok...HOLDMJ Stocks MAY be ok...HOLD
TSLA looks ok..BUY
Inverse short ETF...
Inverse Correlation SPY equities:
1. Micro Cap Equities
2. Some Biotech
3. Blockchain/Digital
Nota
Zombie/Corrupt Companies must either fail or clean houseNota
Fed?Nota
On life support?Nota
Fed engineered economic collapses instead of expansions...FACTNota
If I’m right about SPX (All-Time Chart) we can go a lot lower than 218.Nota
$1,338...Nota
Wish I could make this more digestible but...it is looking pretty bad!Nota
Sub-Wave 2 only retraced .382 of Sub-Wave 1, could this imply the higher degree wave will extend as well? Possible.Nota
Think I solved it....382 = $2,056.93
Nota
Yea, very high degree of confidence $2,056.93 will be the bottom.Nota
If .382 Fails we will see $1,338.The World is Changing...
FAST!
Nota
Strongly encourage portfolio protection or move to the side lines...Nota
Volume Disappearing? Makes you wonder...
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.