Technical Analysis:
Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
• Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom.
• Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven.
• Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure.
• Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out).
Bearish Signals:
• Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior.
• Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion.
• (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows:
• Wave A targeting ~$420–440.
• Wave B dead cat bounce.
• Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement).
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
• 0.382 = ~$450
• 0.5 = ~$390
• 0.618 = ~$340
These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing.
Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative:
• Sticky inflation
• Rising interest payments on U.S. debt
• Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime)
• Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
Wave Structure (Elliott Wave)
• Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom.
• Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven.
• Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure.
• Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out).
Bearish Signals:
• Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior.
• Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion.
• (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows:
• Wave A targeting ~$420–440.
• Wave B dead cat bounce.
• Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement).
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
• 0.382 = ~$450
• 0.5 = ~$390
• 0.618 = ~$340
These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing.
Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative:
• Sticky inflation
• Rising interest payments on U.S. debt
• Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime)
• Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.