SPY drop, bounce, u-turn

19 Ogo

SPY trade idea 5:1 ratio
Short = 565
Stop = 570
Profit = 540

(SPY) S&P 500 index rapidly dropped in a week, then bounced in a V shape recovery for 2 weeks, now it could u-turn back down. SPY is back at it's resistance level of it's 2 year trend channel. There's not much upside left this week from the 560 area. However, it could temporarily false breakout. I'm posting this as a short because there's way more downside than upside potential for the next month. Since there has been steady momentum going up from Monday 8/5 bounce off 510 low, this short setup will probably take a few days. It's likely a catalyst related to newsworthy current events (Macroeconomic / Geopolitical) will u-turn the momentum around.

The trajectory of this SPY 2 year trend channel ends 2024 at these levels. High: 590, mid: 570, low: 550. S&P 500 average annual return since 1957 is around 10%. Over the past 10 years SPY annual returns are:

2015 = -0.81%
2016 = 9.64%
2017 = 19.38%
2018 = -6.35%
2019 = 28.79%
2020 = 16.16%
2021 = 27.04%
2022 = -19.48%
2023 = 24.29%
2024 = 17.74% YTD

SPY options data:
8/23/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 227,406
Call Volume Total 194,390
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.17
Put Open Interest Total 453,568
Call Open Interest Total 231,880
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.96

8/30/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 106,190
Call Volume Total 71,114
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.49
Put Open Interest Total 1,325,995
Call Open Interest Total 400,252
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.31

9/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 34,413
Call Volume Total 27,127
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.27
Put Open Interest Total 409,413
Call Open Interest Total 82,889
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 4.94

9/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 26,054
Call Volume Total 32,626
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.80
Put Open Interest Total 790,615
Call Open Interest Total 72,179
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 10.95

9/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 240,533
Call Volume Total 90,520
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.66
Put Open Interest Total 2,778,151
Call Open Interest Total 878,237
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.16

20 Ogo

Dagangan aktif

start legging in to puts a few each day from 560

22 Ogo

Nota

8/30/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 124,642
Call Volume Total 97,112
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.28
Put Open Interest Total 1,373,258
Call Open Interest Total 410,260
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.35

29 Ogo

Nota

It looks like today or tomorrow SPY will hit a new all time high.