Peak of the Triangle hitting Feb 19, the US Budget deadline …
There are 2 deadlines for the US in the future impacting the market.
The first deadline at midnight on January 19 includes the following areas: Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development.
Next on February 2, the remaining areas would lose funding. These are: Defense; Commerce, Justice and Science; Financial Services and General Government; Homeland Security; Interior, Environment and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; The Legislative Branch; and State and Foreign Operations
Missing these 2 deadlines could result in partial or complete government shutdowns.
There is a triangle forming with the peak hitting at around Feb 19th, when the first deadline hits.
There are 3 possible movements after Jan 19th, which I have outlined as follows …
SCENARIO 1: The SPY could go up, but the probability of the SPY going up is slim as the weekly indicators are already pointing to a downward movement.
SCENARIO 2: The SPY could have a 100% retracement to the beginning of the triangle at around 409 around Feb 2, where there is a second deadline.
SCENARIO 3: The SPY could retrace downward to the 61% level, around 436. This would be followed by an abc movement. The upward movement would retrace between 38% to 50% hitting around 452-457. It would then go back down to around 424 or lower. This abc movement would happen within a couple of days to 1 week. The anticipated end date of this pattern formation would also be Feb. 2nd.
The first deadline at midnight on January 19 includes the following areas: Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development.
Next on February 2, the remaining areas would lose funding. These are: Defense; Commerce, Justice and Science; Financial Services and General Government; Homeland Security; Interior, Environment and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; The Legislative Branch; and State and Foreign Operations
Missing these 2 deadlines could result in partial or complete government shutdowns.
There is a triangle forming with the peak hitting at around Feb 19th, when the first deadline hits.
There are 3 possible movements after Jan 19th, which I have outlined as follows …
SCENARIO 1: The SPY could go up, but the probability of the SPY going up is slim as the weekly indicators are already pointing to a downward movement.
SCENARIO 2: The SPY could have a 100% retracement to the beginning of the triangle at around 409 around Feb 2, where there is a second deadline.
SCENARIO 3: The SPY could retrace downward to the 61% level, around 436. This would be followed by an abc movement. The upward movement would retrace between 38% to 50% hitting around 452-457. It would then go back down to around 424 or lower. This abc movement would happen within a couple of days to 1 week. The anticipated end date of this pattern formation would also be Feb. 2nd.
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
I am going to have to re-do this idea.I put February 19th where I meant to put January 19th. I did this in a few places so I will redo this post as not to confuse anyone.
Therefore, I will close this trade.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.