$SPY – FOMC Risk Window: AI Predicts Downside Drift

30 Jul

📅 Forecast Window: July 30 – August 30, 2025
📡 Powered by VolanX Protocol v3.0 | WaverVanir DSS

🏛️ MACRO SETUP – JULY 31 FOMC:
🏦 Fed Funds Rate: 5.50% (expected hold)

🧊 Inflation: Cooling but sticky (CPI ~3.2%, PCE ~2.6%)

💼 Labor Market: Slowing but not collapsing

📈 CME FedWatch: 91% odds of no hike, but tone may be hawkish

🧠 Key Risk: Liquidity compression or prolonged pause = risk-off conditions

🧠 VOLANX PROTOCOL FORECAST (30-Day):
🔸 Current Price: $636.29

🔹 AI Target: $627.46 (−1.4%)

🟠 Signal: HOLD

🧮 Direction Accuracy: 85.5%

⚠️ Model Confidence: −2.049 (bearish drift)

📊 Volatility Forecast: Low (~1.36%) = slow bleed conditions

📉 WAVERVANIR DSS SIGNAL:
🔸 Sentiment Score: 78

🔻 15D Forecast: $630.49 (−0.8%)

🔻 30D Forecast: $616.68 (−2.9%)

📉 Bias: Mild Bearish

🛑 Signal: Hedge exposure, reduce risk, do not chase longs

🔥 OPTIONS FLOW SNAPSHOT:
🚨 $1.53M Call Sweep (645C, Aug 8) = Speculative breakout bet

📉 Multiple Put Sweeps (633–634P, Aug 4) = Institutional hedging

🟢 Mid-dated 638C/645C flows (Aug 15–22) show straddle-the-news positioning

📐 TECHNICAL ZONES TO WATCH:
📉 Support Levels:

$627 = Fib + VolanX AI Target

$616 = DSS Forecast + liquidity pivot

📈 Resistance Levels:

$639 → Gap close

$645 → Major breakout trigger (options magnet)

🕯️ Structure: Distribution bias → No clear momentum unless Fed surprises dovish

🎯 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK:
Scenario Probability SPY Reaction
🟡 Hawkish Hold 65% Pullback toward $627
⚪ Neutral Hold 25% Choppy → $639 max
🟢 Dovish Surprise 10% Spike to $645+

📌 VolanX Protocol Guidance:

"This is a defense window. AI models and options flow both suggest uncertainty, not conviction. Trim longs, hedge risk, and wait for post-FOMC confirmation."

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31 Jul

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