Spy Road To?

Weekly Thesis for SPY

Weekly High: $594.50

Weekly Low: $589.28

Weekly Close: $594.20


52-Week Range: $481.80 – $613.23

Critical Breakdown Level: 581
Why 581 matters:

It sits well below S₃ (585.60) and aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the past four-week swing (High 594.50 → Low 566.76), which calculates to roughly 581.10.

A decisive weekly close below 581 would breach both pivot-derived supports and this Fibonacci zone, opening the door to deeper pullbacks toward the May 9 low near $564.34

Potential Sell-Wall at 604
Why 604 is a resistance cluster:

It sits just above R₃ (601.26), a confluence of weekly pivot resistance and likely profit-taking levels.

A series of limit orders tend to cluster near these round-number extensions, forming a “sell wall” that may cap any rally unless broken on strong volume.

4. Strategy & Outlook
Caution advised: SPY must hold above 581 on a weekly close basis. A failure to do so would invalidate the recent up-move and likely lead to a test of lower support zones around 587 and 585, then potentially the mid-560s.

Bullish breakout: Only a sustained weekly close above 604—ideally on above-average volume—would signal renewed upside conviction and pave the way toward the 52-week high at $613+.

Action plan:

Wait for confirmation – don’t enter new longs until either 581 holds convincingly or 604 is cleared.

Use tight risk controls – if deploying swing trades, place stops just below 581 for longs or just above 604 for shorts.

Monitor volume – validate any breakout/breakdown with volume spikes to confirm institutional participation.

Im Waiting On Confirmation as Always Safe Trades & JoeWtrades