SPY: Week of Nov 20th

19 Nov 2023

Short week ahead (Friday is a holiday).
So expect short-week shenanigans.


All in all, it seems that we are likely pulling back this week, probably a move before moving higher.

This is based on:

• Position of SPY on the Z-Score (Standard Deviation Assessment).
  
• Position of SPY in relation to the 75 and 50 DSL line on the 1 hour and daily.
  
• Position of SPY in relation to VIX, DXY and QQQ when co-integrated.
  
• Position of SPY in relation to the ARIMA moving average on the daily.
  
• The weekly momentum probabilities.
  
• Next week positioning on the S&P via SPX options.
  
• Option positioning on the VIX for next week.
  
• Overhead resistance from our ATH that prevents us from hitting the weekly forecasted high targets (you can view this in the main chart, but here is a bigger picture look at that resistance):
  

The weekly regression probabilities (a neutral approach to prob modeling) are actually net neutral on all S&P derivatives, they are 50 / 50 but the momentum ones are particularly bearish.

I suspect it will just be a pullback though before going higher if we do indeed sell.

And if we look at SPY co-integrated with DXY, VIX and QQQ, we are the most overvalued we have ever been:



This was the last time we were this outside of the expected range and what happened:



As well as SPY's position over the ARIMA moving average (this indicator is to be released soon, just still working on some stuff with it):



Again, more over-extended than we have ever been, with an initial pullback target at 440 to 439.

So yeah, lots going on, lots to consider. But it seems like it's going to be a short, at least temporarily. As of now, this puts the immediate target at around 440 to 439.

And as a general note:
I have also fixed the issue with TPs not getting hit on the indices.
I have increased the precision of the stuff I used. Prior to 2022, I used high-precision calculated levels, however in 2022 there was crazy volatility and the high-precision levels were not always great and easily skewed by huge moves in one direction, which was happening on a daily basis.
So I switched to a low precision model which did the trick and has done the trick for most part of this year, however, I have noticed that we have returned to more stable trading behaviour, for the most part, this year, and the low preceision models have been kind of hit or miss.

For example, if you followed along with my QQQ drama on Friday, here is QQQ with the low-precision model overlaid:



No targets hit. But look what happens when we increase the precision:



PH2 reached...... 🙄

So yeah, will probably try these next week, though I have a feeling the volatility may be a bit more present than we saw last week... but that is just a hunch.

Anyway, will catch up with you later, safe trades and enjoy the rest of your weekend :-).

20 Nov 2023

Nota

Hey everyone,
Quick little update before SHTF:



NQ had another annoying 99 on the weekly, but we have taken it out in the overnight session.
NQ and ES1! are repsecitvely rejecting the bull threshold on the week, both.

Expect maybe some initial pulse action into open to re-test these threshold levels:

NQ1!:


ES11!:


Be skeptical of initial breakouts.

The ultimate resistance on SPY is 451, if it can break and hold that, then probably going to be a long. Else, not.

GLTA

20 Nov 2023

Nota

Breakouts everywhere,
Of course tech is parabolic,
but there is a 99 at 449 on SPY.

Take with that as you wish.
I am out for the day, long scalped off open for the obvious bullish pulse. It went better than I anticipated.

I am now short with next week expiries, actually hedges it intraday today because of the ridiculousness of this all with 0 dte calls (just 3).
Top of range on the day is a move to 454.

20 Nov 2023

Nota

To clarify, short on SPY not tech. Tech is just a trainwreck.

20 Nov 2023

Nota

Still short on SPY and still have my 0 dte hedge going, though I did take two off so down to 1.
It was offsetting the red but now that SPY is refusing to move its just theta decaying. So will just keep that last one in case this decides to do a parabolic shoot up.

Indices are not really day tradeable imo. I hoped that this week would improve the PA and unless you are getting in right off open, its a no go. So going to just prepare to swing this on SPY.
Keep in mind, I am advancing a short bias only because the math and 99 say to. From a TA perspective this is very much a long.

As its doing nothing, I took a long trade on AMD

Targetting 122.09. Almost there. Once we get there, will trail for potential move to 122.62.

GLTA.

20 Nov 2023

Nota

Didn't get my AMD target :(.
But was still a nice win.

Day trades today were all great, its just this damn SPY not co-operating. But I should have lived up to my word about not trading it this week... ugh... we just have so much history its hard to stay away from it.

20 Nov 2023

Nota

Stopped out while the losses were marginal thanks to the 0 dte hedge.

I am done with SPY honestly. Epitome of irrationality.

I will update when some sense comes back into it. Until then just long everything all the time and don't ask questions.

Good luck!

20 Nov 2023

Nota

So, got in short on the DOW a little before closing. Targetting about 448.70 on DIA or 34,965 on YM.
ES1! and SPY both broke over the weekly initial high target, SPY also blasted through that overhead resistance from our ATH. But the sell towards EOD actually had it lose all of this progress



BIas is neutral. No point in running probs tomorrow because they just haven't been all that helpful lately with the constant pushing and not looking back.

Either we sell tomorrow or we continue for PH2 at around 457 on SPY. Let's see what it does.

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Trailing my DIA short.

Got short SPY to 451 range

21 Nov 2023

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

I got out of SPY for a very small win.
PA is absolutely horrendous for shorting, as expected, and quite honestly I am just terrified to short anymore...

Also ES1! is pretty much on PL1 support:


Going to leave it alone, the DOW is a big winner for me (it took out PH2 yesterday and I shorted there at 352.09.

The best suggestion is to sit on the sidelines until FOMC minutes. If we tank with those or see some more pullback, I will likely be positioning long into EOY for that 6-month target on SPX a little over 4,600.

Let's see what FOMC minutes bring!

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Absolutely extraordinary market:



I shorted on rejection and it just refuses, absolutely effing REFUSES to go down. I ended up just getting out, for a bit of a win, out of sheer annoyance.

The impression and my plan going forward is just to ignore all short entries and wait for longs because the patience and time required for that trade did not pay off in the end...... And its been true for most short trades lately.

Its actually to a point where you can just jump into a bunch of 0 dte calls on aggressive bearish candles, to make a fine profit on the next 1 minute candle (Because its just going to push right back up equally), and yes.. I Have done this haha.

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Can't beat em, join em: 🐂🐂🐂



got long on the break, targetting the bullish condition. Stop at slight profit at the bearish condition.

If we are going to love these FOMC minutes, then the move is to 454.46 and potentially, if broken, 455.

If we are going to hate them, the move is probably down to that 451 and, if broken, 449.

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Also the moving GT (a form of 99 that bases the target on real time price action) currently rests at 454.
If we tank with FOMC the GT will move down if we make new lows, so its not great to base it on currently, with a modest catalyst coming, but as of no its holding steady based on current PA at 454.38.

Its hit 100% of the time but its a sham in that sense because, like I said, it adjusts based on real time PA.

21 Nov 2023

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Trailing now:

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Trail stopped


Really great win here. Back in the green on the week!

Not going to short it, just going to wait for the next long setup :p.

BUT VERY IMPORTANT NOTE:
Unless we make a new low on the day, the target price today is in fact 454.38.
The only thing that will invalidate is breaking the previous low.

So you can see, its a very interesting sitch we have going on right here.

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Got long again off the bear threshold, lol.
What a joke. I am not complaining but really, only up, never down.

I have a stop set in profit, I am a little concerned that the market may use FOMC minutes to actually sell down a bit more and if volatility spikes on FOMC minutes sometimes the stops on options get wonky and end up making me lose money instead.

If we do tank towards those low targets on the minutes, I will be a dip buyer. If we push up, remember our immediate target is that 454.

FOMC minutes don't usually moe the market dramatically or much, but how it is positioned her makes me feel like its going to use it as an excuse to do a move one way or the other, so let's see.

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Really interesting close and really odd we did not take out the 454.

It seems like the market has some point to make, just not quite sure what that point is yet. But maybe time will tell.

Our position in relation to the weekly levels:


Looking for this to maybe dip back down to the bullish condition to go long for a longer term period.

I am eyeing the target on SPX, I did mention it in another post but just in case, here it is :



I believe with the current sentiment being unfettered bullishness, its probably the most logical consequence.

Thus I am looking to just get settled into a longer term, low stress long position and leave it be till EOY.
At this point, with the fear being so low, I just can't fathom a bearish thesis any longer. Our next chance at bearishness will come in January. We could see a 180 back to bear market territory. But likely not before then. Its just too rainbows, lollipops and unicorns.



Also tomorrow is the last day before the holiday, then condensed day on Friday. So we may not see much momentum tomorrow, but either way, bias at this point is long.

21 Nov 2023

Nota

Probs for tomorrow on SPY, AMD, QQQ and AMZN:




For the most part it seems rather to the bullish side of things.

22 Nov 2023

Nota

As of now, TP on SPY is 457.42 on the day.

22 Nov 2023

Nota

Closed my trade at PH1:


Going to wait for the news thing at 10 am UDT.

Will see from there but the thresholds to watch are in the chart. If we break below 454.54 then we can look to 453.44 and 452.12.
If we hold 454.54 then the move is to the 457.

Everything is blasting, AMD, AMZN, Qs etc. so let's see what we get in 5 minutes!

22 Nov 2023

Nota

SPY broke below,
I also shorted AMD because it shot out of its range:



Closed most of the AMD position,have 3 contracts left to just trail. Looking for a move back to the threshold 120.28. Its set to sell if we break back over PH3 at 122.47.

Really great day, I aggressively long SPY with a wack load of 0 dtes to PH1, and then did a pretty huge AMD position short. A little reckless but you know how these things go.

So will be out for the remainder of the day but will update if I see anything interesting!

Good luck all!

22 Nov 2023

Nota

SPY Chart:

22 Nov 2023

Nota

Also if you are a QQQ trader, here are the levels to watch:



QQQ also maxed its top range, which is why I felt comfortable shorting AMD at the time. But my AMD has since been stopped as it broke back over PH3.

Seems kind precarious, the price action, so I don't realy have any suggestions haha.

22 Nov 2023

Nota

Very low volume, I don't expect it to improve drastically on Friday either, especially since Friday is condensed.

I am trying a bit of a long on the VIX here with UVXY:



Its at -2 SD on the month which is very extreme for the VIX. It also looks like its starting an inverse head and shoulders. Not that I am bearish on the market but generally VIX can bounce even when the market is bullish, especially at these levels.

I will be quick to ditch the position though if it doesn't hold the -2 SD line as support, because we have gone as low as -3.

Just a small position to keep my fomo in check, not that there is anything to fomo about this week since the market barely has a pulse.

24 Nov 2023

Nota

Just taking a quick looksee at what ES1! is doing:



And overlaid with the daily levels:



Interesting that the projected high corresponds to our previous high. That will be a key level.

I am not sure we will have the volume for a break up or down, but maybe some initial volume could come into push it to re-test that high. Failing to break above would not be a very bullish sign.

Breaking down would also not be a very bullish sign.

Though ES1! continues to hold above the bullish condition during the Asia session, we will have to see where it opens tomorrow.

Just my immediate thoughts, kind of ignored everything today and thought I would see what it accomplished.

Remember condensed trading hours tomorrow, so if you're day trading, get in and get out quickly.

24 Nov 2023

Nota

Going to leave it alone today.

No direction, no volume, no momentum, overly optimistic but vastly overbought, and condensed trading hours = untradeable.

No suggestions.

24 Nov 2023

Nota

If you look on the condensed levels here you can see how there is absolutely no rhyme or reason for the PA today, its just randomly drifting and reversing on whims:



Pretty terrible PA but it was what I was expecting. I strongly suggest fighting the urge to trade and avoiding it because its going to cost you.

24 Nov 2023

Nota

Alright, I'll come clean, I did trade today lol, but AMD on the break of the wedge thing



And I only shorted 3 contracts. But held for a re-test of the threshold. Because, in regards to my UVXY swing.. yeah that was a loss, of course. 🙄

Only up, never down. Can't stress it enough.

I will be back on at close at 1 pm UDT and give you a little peek at what the probs and stuff are saying about next week.
Probably will maybe stick to AMD, as its actually behaving rationally.. kind of.... I (I still think AMD at 120 is a little.. excessive.. though I do like the company a lot, more than NVDA).

Anyway, will be back at 1 to give you a look at the probs going into next week and on the day. As well as the TPs.

I will of course do my usual SPY idea but I know many, like myself, are impatient and want answers now.

24 Nov 2023

Nota

All bullish... big shocker there.

TPs:


However it looks like we could see a marginal pullback on Monday.

But 460s have managed to pop their way into the TPs, so that's fairly interesting.

Momentum TPs also agree with the 460 mark:


Should be an interesting week. But yeah, still operating on a buy the dip mentality should serve you well. It probably will be until the first week of December before we see meaningful pullback honestly.

Anyway will look more into it over the weekend and catch up with you all later.

Have a great weekend!