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➤ I expected a move higher for equities given my long exposure. The exposure was relatively small reflecting an overall low level of conviction. The surprise to me was the extent of the negative move. This overshadowed my low exposure adding to the recent run of bad trading results.

➤ Technically, the uptrend since the October bottom looks to be over or on pause. The S&P500 has made a lower low. Price has fallen below the key support level at 390/3900 as well as the 50 and 200 day moving averages. A gap formed due to the lower open although it is small. Price need not levitate to close it. It may first gravitate lower to close the 10th Nov gap.

➤ More Bears will come out of hibernation if we see a lower high form to signal a medium-term downtrend that should last for a few months. This is within the context of the longer term downtrend of successive lower highs and lower lows since January.

➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: I was wrong, all the excitement is not just for the Football World Cup Final.
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