Staring Down A Market Crash - $400 Target for SPY

"B" waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" [...] by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it's a "B" wave.”

— The Elliott Wave Principle

In my last major idea for SPY, I predicted a bear market rally would take the price to $580 by early May. Now that we have arrived at the target, I am writing again to call for a major market reversal — a crash that will take SPY down to $400–$450 in the coming weeks. There are several factors that I am basing my assumptions on, and I will break them down briefly.

Before I do that, I would like to add to the quote above that I find B waves to be one of the most fascinating market phases. In larger degrees it is interesting to observe how sentiment changes over time and how price action can trick even seasoned traders into thinking the bear market has been vanquished, when in reality the worst lies ahead. In this instance, the collective euphoria is understandable; the trade war seems to be in retreat and inflation has remained tame. What is left to worry about? Who knows — but what I can say is that there are signs that there is still fear in the market and indices are currently at a level where they will be highly sensitive to any bad news.



Here is how I’m counting Wave (B) on the 200R ($2) chart. The price retraced to nearly 0.618 of A (0.382 level on the fib extension) and entered Wave C. I will admit that the PA in Wave C was confusing at first. As I mentioned in my previous idea, I expected the price in Wave (B) to rise to around 75% of Wave (A) and would spike above the daily 50/100/200 MAs. However, the uptrend was choppy and slow — held back by low volume and multiple traps for both sides. Fortunately, the further a trend moves along, the more clear it becomes. I am now counting Wave C of (B) as an ending diagonal, which is common in C waves.

In the diagonal, the price rose in five distinct waves once it entered the channel, with Wave (v) throwing over the top and being met with heavy resistance, which happens to be at the 1.618 extension of Wave A. While this is nearly a perfect diagonal per the rules, one issue I will point out is that Wave (iv) stopped just short of Wave (i) territory. Typically in a diagonal it should retrace into Wave (i); however, I’ll consider this to be close enough.

If the price were to move higher, the next target would be the 2.00 extension of A ($612.70). This would be near the previous ATH, which would signal a flat correction. While this is not impossible, I am going to stick with my initial instinct that the price will reverse around this level when other market indicators are taken into consideration. More on that later.



On the weekly chart, there is volume divergence and a major gap that was started this week at $570. Additionally, if Wave (B) were to end this week, it may end up with less volume than Wave (A). Since Wave (A) lasted for 8 weeks (a Fibonacci number), my box for Wave (C) is the next highest in the sequence — 13. This is just a guess, but if we were to see a similar pattern play out, SPY should bottom out in late July or early August. The Weekly 200MA should be an important area of support, so be sure to keep an eye on that.



Also, do not forget to check the Monthly chart. Here we can see that April has a very long downside wick. I would expect to see this get filled in.



Lastly, on the daily chart, here is a recap of where we are in relation to my previous idea calling for $580 on SPY. As I predicted, the price popped above the 100MA and is finding resistance. The 100MA is ready to cross the 200MA, which can be thought of as a second death cross, if you will. I also have boxes here to show the unfilled gaps to the downside. With the trend being this exhausted, I would expect to see both get filled in soon.



Bearing all of this in mind, some people may argue that the technicals do not matter in this environment. After all, some of the headwinds that caused the first crash have dissipated and recession fears seem to be waning. While I won’t argue against any of that, there are other signs that the market is not out of the woods yet. Looking beyond SPY, US10Y has been on the rise and is on track to make a higher high. I’m targeting 5% over the coming weeks. I have another idea that looks more closely into this so I won’t elaborate any further in this post; however, this is one sign that institutions are risk-averse when it comes to the US economy.



The other component of this assessment is that the dollar appears to be heading lower. The chart above is inverted to more easily show what appears to be a classic impulse wave structure entering Wave 5, which could take DXY to the 1.618 extension of Wave 1 — around $96.68. If this were to play out, the dollar index would reach its lowest level since March 2022. This could spur a debt crisis where the Fed will have to make difficult decisions. If they start cutting rates to lower yields, it could also add further downside pressure to the dollar, which could make finding the right balance difficult. Keeping rates higher for longer and buying back Treasuries would be the preferred route, but Powell could face mounting political pressure to start making cuts if it seems the situation is getting out of hand, and could lead to more trouble down the road. This strain could be a possible fundamental backing for a stock market sell-off, so it is important to pay attention to.



Lastly, the final signs that indicate to me that a reversal is coming soon is that this uptrend is losing breadth. This is evident when looking at indices that are not weighted so heavily by mega cap tech stocks, such as DJI and $RUT. It was striking to see DIA and IWM down Tuesday and Wednesday while SPY and QQQ inched higher. On DIA, the 100MA is starting to cross the 200MA and volume is picking up. Once tech starts selling off, we will see the other major indexes tumble.



I could keep going on and on, but you get the point. Here is VIX at a critical support level and starting to reverse higher. One last comment on B waves is that it is dangerous to follow the herd during times like these. Trust the technicals, and when something seems off — trust your instincts. We will never know what news is around the corner, but financial markets are so vast that we should assume that all factors known and unknown to the general public are being priced in real time.

As the next phase of the downtrend gets going, it will be easier to predict the bottom with greater accuracy. For now, I’m keeping the range wide and will look for $400–$450. As always, thank you for reading and let me know what you think.