Market ignores macro trends before Fed meeting

The market has been rising a lot lately, with many turning bullish. We have a critical event coming that will dictate the direction of the market sentiment.

Market broadly believes Fed will reduce rate hike from .50 to .25. I have concerns with this conclusion

• Unemployment has been decreasing regularly.
  
• Inflation is reducing but still high.
  
• We see a continuing trend of layoffs primarily occurring in tech while other sectors are still highering.
  
• Fed has warned that the recent rally will only lead to greater pain down the road.
  
• The fed is aware of the greedy sentiment and has a history of tampering down greed while fighting inflation.
  

My belief is that the markets sentiment of reduction to .25 is more based on wanting to see a light at the end of the tunnel, less on macro trends.

My view is that fed will hold at .5 rate increase reiterating long road ahead. This will bring a shock to the greedy markets and trigger a wave of selling.

Greed is definitely the sentiment right now.

Buy the fear, sell the greed.