Watchlist 2023-05-03 $SPY $CHGG $MGM $SQQQ $TQQQ $NCLH

SPY - not making any significant moves ON as we await the FED policy decision at 2:00 ET. It is widely expected that they will raise another 25 basis points. Here are the scenarios and plan of action.

25 bps hike - because this is the expected scenario, the market has priced this in, since mar 13th, we've gained 30 points in SPY. My bias is that we eventually move lower. However, We will obviously need price to confirm this bias. If we are making lower highs, and the strong moves are in the red bars my bias will be confirmed. Also noting if the market internals below are in favour of shorts. Using SQQQ to play the short side in this situation.

0 bps pause - this will be exceptionally bullish. Buy the leading tech stocks with high RVOL and high beta. RIOT NVDA
I still think this is a possibility because Powell mentioned that the banking crisis has done much of the work already.

25 bps cut - don't see this happening but same idea as o bps but go bigger and hold til EOD.

For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
ADD pinned near +\-2000
VVOLD ratio over +/- 3
TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900


CHGG - tumbled over 43% or 13.5 ATRs in premarket when it forecasted net revenue below analysts' estimates from weaker customer growth due to a recorded rise in student interest in ChatGPT. Many analysts downgrading the name as well. I think this move is unprecedented and there will be opportunities for a bounce trade. Historical support from 2017 is at 8.80 - which it bounced off of PD. Gapping only 1 ATR in PM but still holding below the 9.80 10.00 res. Today I could see it ranging between theses values which gives plenty of room to play in. But it it breaks 10.00 then it's a sure long play. Next Res at 11.00 and 11.30

MGM - over 46.40

NCLH - Day 3 continuation over 14.65.