SUI‑USDT – Exhaustion or Extension?

16 Jul

1. Why this zone matters

• Price has reached the 0.886 Fib retrace of the May -> Jun swing.
  
• Momentum is fading: 1‑hour RSI peaked lower (60 vs. 69 on the prior swing).
  
• OBV and hourly volume both rolling over
  

2. Order‑flow snapshot (since 14 Jul 00:00 UTC)

• Spot CVD → up   Retail/FIAT buyers still lifting offers.
  
• Perp CVD → down Aggressive shorts absorbing that demand.
  
• Aggregated OI → up, now stalling Fresh longs trapped; beginning to unwind.
  
• Interpretation: spot bids are being offset by short perps, and the build‑up in leverage is leaking—classic exhaustion.
  

3. Historical stats to know

• The combo Spot CVD ↑ + Perp CVD ↓ + OI roll‑over + RSI bear‑div has produced a ≥ 1 % downside move within 30 minutes about 65 % of the time on tier‑1 alts (Jan 2023 – Apr 2025 sample).
  

4. Checklist before I short

• M5 structure break (lower‑high plus close below the last M5 swing low).
  
• Need a 1H candle CLOSE below the yellow ascending trendline!
  
• Perp CVD flips ≤ 0 and OI prints two consecutive down‑ticks.
  
• TPO sell tail with at least 3 single prints right at the high.
  

If all three fire → short is live. Otherwise, stand aside.

Bottom line
Momentum is fading; spot buying is being soaked up by stealth perp shorts, and leverage is already leaking out. Wait for the checklist—then look for a mean‑reversion move lower.

And remember: Reaction beats prediction.

16 Jul

Nota

This is not financial advice.

16 Jul

Nota

This is not financial advice.

16 Jul

Dagangan aktif

I had closed my position with very small loss when we broke out of 16.60 -

We can look for a re-enter here



beware though - market might blast higher. Use tight stops here.

16 Jul

Nota

Last note is for the other LINKUSDT setup.