Quantum's T (AT&T) Trading Guide 4/13/25

Sentiment: Neutral. Dividend yield (4-5%) and debt reduction ($123B) attract income seekers, but telecom competition and tariff fears limit enthusiasm. X posts praise stability, though growth concerns persist.

Outlook: Neutral, slightly bullish. Options pin $27, with call buying eyeing $28. ICT/SMT supports $26-$26.50 buys to $27.50-$28 if support holds. Bearish risk below $25 low unless earnings falter.

Influential News:
--Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged, two 2025 cuts expected, easing debt costs. Liquidity boost mildly positive.
--Earnings: Q1 due April 23 (EPS $1.97-$2.07 vs. $2.13). Fiber (28.9M locations) and cash flow (>$16B) could lift if beat.
--Chatter: X mixed—stability vs. tariff risks. Analyst focus on earnings revisions.
--Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber unit ($5.5B+), potentially boosting growth but risking debt concerns.
--Other: Tariffs caused volatility; T stable. Broadband expansion adds value.

Indicators:
--Weekly:
----RSI: ~45 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
----MFI: ~40 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMA signals suggest consolidation.

--Daily:
----RSI: ~48 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
----MFI: ~45 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs indicate pullback but recovery possible.

--Hourly:
----RSI: ~50 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~60 (neutral).
----MFI: ~50 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, mildly bullish momentum.

Price Context: $26.79 (April 11 close), 1M: -6%, 1Y: +59%. Range $25-$29, holding $26 support amid tariff concerns.

Options Positioning (May 2025):
-Volume:
----Calls: $27 (3,500, 60% ask = buying), $28 (2,500, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $27-$28.
---Puts: $25 (2,000, 70% bid = selling), $26 (1,500, 65% bid). $25 put selling supports $26 floor.
-Open Interest:
---Calls: $27 (10,000, +2,000 = buying), $28 (7,000, +1,500). Institutional bullishness.
---Puts: $25 (4,000, flat), $26 (6,000, +1,000). Hedging, not bearish. Put-call ~0.9.
-IV Skew:
---Calls: $27 (25%), $28 (27%, up 2%). $28 IV rise shows $28+ speculation.
---Puts: $25 (22%, down 1%), $26 (24%). Falling $25 IV reinforces $26 support.
-Probability: 60% $25-$28, 20% >$29.

Karsan’s Interpretation:
---Vanna: Neutral (~50k shares/1% IV). Stable IV limits flows; earnings IV spike could push
$27.50.
---Charm: Neutral (~20k shares/day). Pins $27.
---GEX: +20,000. Dealers sell $28, buy $26, holding range.
---DEX: +1M shares, neutral.
---Karsan view: GEX pins $26-$28; catalyst needed.

ICT/SMT Analysis:
--Weekly: Neutral, $25 support, $29 resistance. No $T/VZ divergence (~$43 VZ).
--Daily: Bullish at $26 FVG, targets $28. Bearish < $26.
--1-Hour: Bullish >$26.50, $27.50 target. MSS at $26.50.
--10-Minute: OTE ($26.69-$26.80, $26.73) for buys, NY AM (8:30-11:00 AM).

Trade Idea:
---Bullish: 60%. ICT/SMT buys $26-$26.50 to $27.50-$28 (OTE $26.73). Options favor $27-$28
calls. Earnings, M&A, Fed cuts support.
---Neutral: 30%. RSI (~45), SMAs (bearish), $25-$29 range, balanced options (put-call ~0.9).
---Bearish: 10%. Below $25 needs earnings miss. Low $25 put volume.