T (AT&T Inc.)
Sentiment
• Sentiment is neutral with a bearish tilt. April 10 options activity shows put-heavy volume at $26 strikes, reflecting caution. RSI (14) at ~50 (estimated, flat trend at $26.40 close) suggests indecision. X posts highlight concerns over telecom debt loads and tariff risks on equipment imports, but some speculate on institutional accumulation below $26.50. A liquidity sweep below $26.33 could trigger a bullish reversal if buy-side liquidity is tapped.
Catalyst: Potential sweep below $26.33 may spark short covering.
Tariff Impact - Rating: Moderate.
• Explanation: T relies on imported telecom equipment, facing cost pressures from tariffs on China (active as of April 11). No relief announced, so margins could tighten, capping upside. X posts suggest tariff fears weigh on sentiment, but domestic revenue focus limits fundamental damage.
News/Catalysts
• Driver: Flat telecom sector performance on April 10, with T holding steady amid mixed market signals. X posts cited stability but no clear catalyst.
• Upcoming: CPI (April 11): High CPI could hurt T (-1.5%) due to rate hike fears; low CPI may lift it (+1%) as a yield play.
• Retail Sales (April 15): Strong data supports T (+1%); weak data pressures (-1%) due to consumer spending risks.
Technical Setup
Weekly Chart:
• HVN: $26.00 support (bullish).
• LVN: $27.00 resistance (neutral).
• EMA Trend: 8-week ≈ 13-week > 48-week (neutral).
• RSI (14): ~50 (neutral).
• MACD: Near signal line (neutral).
• Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral).
• Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral).
• Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral).
• ADR: Stable (neutral).
• VWAP: At VWAP $26.40 (neutral).
• ICT/SMC: No clear MSS; consolidation phase.
One-Hour Chart:
• Support/Resistance: Support at $26.33; resistance at $26.56. Stance: neutral.
• RSI (14): ~50 (neutral).
• MACD: Near zero (neutral).
• Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral).
• Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral).
• Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral).
• VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral).
• ICT/SMC: Sell-side liquidity below $26.33; OB at $26.40; FVG at $26.35–$26.45; OTE at $26.45; no displacement.
10-Minute Chart:
• Closing Move: Flat into close.
• EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs flat (neutral).
• RSI (14): ~50 (neutral).
• MACD: Near zero (neutral).
• VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral).
• ICT/SMC: Potential sweep below $26.33; OTE at $26.45; no clear entry signal yet.
Options Data
• GEX: Neutral, pinning at $26.50. Dealers hedge minimally.
• DEX: Put delta bias (-0.15), bearish pressure.
• IV: Low (~18%), limited swings.
• OI: Put-heavy (55% puts at $26), capping upside.
Cem Karsan’s Application:
• Weekly Trading Breakdown: OI at $26 suggests pinning. Low gamma limits volatility; vanna neutral; charm favors puts near OPEX.
• Strategy: Buy $26.50 calls at $26.45 (OTE), exit at $27, profit $0.30, risk $0.40. Ties to sweep below $26.33.
• Vanna: Stable IV, no dealer-driven lift.
• Charm: Puts gain delta near OPEX, pressuring $26.
Timeframe Analysis:
• Weekly (exp. April 18): Put OI at $26, low IV, bearish stance.
• Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, neutral stance.
• 3-Month (exp. July 18): Neutral outlook.
• Directional Bias: Neutral, leaning bearish unless sweep triggers reversal.
Sympathy Plays
• Correlated Assets: VZ (+1%), CCI (+0.5%).
• Opposite Mover: If T fades, risk-on SPOT rises (+1%).
Sector Positioning with RRG - Sector: Communication Services – Telecom.
• RRG Position: Lagging vs. XLC, reflecting weak momentum.
Targets
• Bullish: +2% to $27.00 (OB).
• Bearish: -2% to $25.87 (FVG).
Sentiment
• Sentiment is neutral with a bearish tilt. April 10 options activity shows put-heavy volume at $26 strikes, reflecting caution. RSI (14) at ~50 (estimated, flat trend at $26.40 close) suggests indecision. X posts highlight concerns over telecom debt loads and tariff risks on equipment imports, but some speculate on institutional accumulation below $26.50. A liquidity sweep below $26.33 could trigger a bullish reversal if buy-side liquidity is tapped.
Catalyst: Potential sweep below $26.33 may spark short covering.
Tariff Impact - Rating: Moderate.
• Explanation: T relies on imported telecom equipment, facing cost pressures from tariffs on China (active as of April 11). No relief announced, so margins could tighten, capping upside. X posts suggest tariff fears weigh on sentiment, but domestic revenue focus limits fundamental damage.
News/Catalysts
• Driver: Flat telecom sector performance on April 10, with T holding steady amid mixed market signals. X posts cited stability but no clear catalyst.
• Upcoming: CPI (April 11): High CPI could hurt T (-1.5%) due to rate hike fears; low CPI may lift it (+1%) as a yield play.
• Retail Sales (April 15): Strong data supports T (+1%); weak data pressures (-1%) due to consumer spending risks.
Technical Setup
Weekly Chart:
• HVN: $26.00 support (bullish).
• LVN: $27.00 resistance (neutral).
• EMA Trend: 8-week ≈ 13-week > 48-week (neutral).
• RSI (14): ~50 (neutral).
• MACD: Near signal line (neutral).
• Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral).
• Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral).
• Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral).
• ADR: Stable (neutral).
• VWAP: At VWAP $26.40 (neutral).
• ICT/SMC: No clear MSS; consolidation phase.
One-Hour Chart:
• Support/Resistance: Support at $26.33; resistance at $26.56. Stance: neutral.
• RSI (14): ~50 (neutral).
• MACD: Near zero (neutral).
• Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral).
• Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral).
• Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral).
• VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral).
• ICT/SMC: Sell-side liquidity below $26.33; OB at $26.40; FVG at $26.35–$26.45; OTE at $26.45; no displacement.
10-Minute Chart:
• Closing Move: Flat into close.
• EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs flat (neutral).
• RSI (14): ~50 (neutral).
• MACD: Near zero (neutral).
• VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral).
• ICT/SMC: Potential sweep below $26.33; OTE at $26.45; no clear entry signal yet.
Options Data
• GEX: Neutral, pinning at $26.50. Dealers hedge minimally.
• DEX: Put delta bias (-0.15), bearish pressure.
• IV: Low (~18%), limited swings.
• OI: Put-heavy (55% puts at $26), capping upside.
Cem Karsan’s Application:
• Weekly Trading Breakdown: OI at $26 suggests pinning. Low gamma limits volatility; vanna neutral; charm favors puts near OPEX.
• Strategy: Buy $26.50 calls at $26.45 (OTE), exit at $27, profit $0.30, risk $0.40. Ties to sweep below $26.33.
• Vanna: Stable IV, no dealer-driven lift.
• Charm: Puts gain delta near OPEX, pressuring $26.
Timeframe Analysis:
• Weekly (exp. April 18): Put OI at $26, low IV, bearish stance.
• Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, neutral stance.
• 3-Month (exp. July 18): Neutral outlook.
• Directional Bias: Neutral, leaning bearish unless sweep triggers reversal.
Sympathy Plays
• Correlated Assets: VZ (+1%), CCI (+0.5%).
• Opposite Mover: If T fades, risk-on SPOT rises (+1%).
Sector Positioning with RRG - Sector: Communication Services – Telecom.
• RRG Position: Lagging vs. XLC, reflecting weak momentum.
Targets
• Bullish: +2% to $27.00 (OB).
• Bearish: -2% to $25.87 (FVG).
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.