Tellurian (TELL): What comes next?

14 Mei 2022

So, a lot going on in this chart, but what I want to draw attention to is the crossover of the 20ma down through the 50ma (yellow ellipses) and the price action that follows. We have 3 analogs on the chart over the past year or so. The crossover coincides with near term oversold conditions and and a brief correction followed by further downside. The downside from near the top of the correction to the actual bottom ranges from -36 to -43% after reaching back to near/above the 20ma. If this were to repeat, then we can expect a rise next week into the mid/upper 4S followed by a retreat into the mid 3s. That would complete a H&S pattern on the daily timeframe. The horizontal green dashed lines are buy signals from the RSI. Only 1 of those 4 buy signals were premature. We're likely about to get another one Monday. The question is will it be a false one, like the one on 12/3/21, or will it be like the others? If it is a true buy signal, then we won't repeat the pattern of rising back up to the down sloping 20ma, then retreating. There are only two scenarios I see that could flip us back into bull-mode. One is a rising XOP that ascends to new (recent) highs. The other is the company releasing material news. Short term ?, medium/long bullish based on DD.