Technical & Trade View
TLT (ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 93.27
Technicals
Primary support is 93.27
Primary pattern objective is 99.19
Acceptance above 95.40 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance below 93.20 opens a test of 90.30
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Notes
US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print
Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)'
Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'
TLT (ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 93.27
Technicals
Primary support is 93.27
Primary pattern objective is 99.19
Acceptance above 95.40 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance below 93.20 opens a test of 90.30
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish
Notes
US CPI released today, volatility expected around the print
Goldman Sachs expects ‘a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)'
Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.