TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)

14 Okt 2024

As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish.

Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.

Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.

And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.

I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.

Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.

Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.

That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.

Not advice

14 Okt 2024

Nota

Looking a bit deeper, notice that US20Y (inverse to TLT) bottomed in the 1:0.618 Golden Window.

This is a weak ratio.

And so this could be a 3 wave correction now completing with a shakeout pattern through the 20 month moving average.

These charts are very exotic but this could be a first little clue that the bond market may be blowing up 👀.

15 Okt 2024

Nota

Notice how money has been flowing out of the bond market since the FED interest rate cut.

Isn't it interesting that TLT was completing a weak 3 wave failure exactly as rates were cut.

That's not a coincidence I would suggest.

The market makers have a habit of timing these structures with perfection; to be tapping into higher liquidity at the slightly higher high above resistance, and above the 20 month moving average.

All by design 🤨.

23 Okt 2024

Dagangan aktif

TLT

Looking on lower time frame, the RSI is quite high as price makes a lower low.

And it is currently within a 2.272 Golden Window.

So there could be a bounce coming to print a bear trap shakeout through the demand line.

I've taken some profit here but will also hold some with higher time frame bias.

This is not a big trade for me since this trend has already had significant bearish action but I think it looks very much odds on to re-test the lows and maybe make another wave down.

If it bounces I will look to re-enter my shorts on a bull trap shakeout pattern 👀.

24 Okt 2024

Nota

Gap up pre-market.

It will most likely get back to the demand trendline here and perhaps even back to the 0.382 @ $95.

Either way this is getting back to the lows I think 👀.

It was good to take some profit 👍.