Altcoin Market Structure Outlook | ETH/BTC Rotation Analysis
This chart outlines a cyclical framework I'm using to anticipate a potential bottom in altcoins heading into Q4. Currently, ETH is outperforming BTC, and altcoins are following its momentum - though many continue to make lower lows relative to ETH.D but as long as eth rallies I see Alts keeping up.
Historically, we've seen altcoin capitulation phases follow a two-stage structure: an initial local bottom in June/July, followed by a final sweep or structural low into October (Q4), as observed in both 2023 and 2024. Given this repeating seasonal pattern, I expect ETH to potentially retrace against BTC in Q4 making a higher low, which could set the stage for altcoins to make a lower low and retest their key range lows — particularly near the 0.25 ETH/BTC level.
Should ETH maintain a higher low and resume trend afterward, it would likely mark a rotation point where capital begins flowing into higher-beta altcoins. Coupled with potential macro tailwinds like rate cuts or dovish policy pivots, this scenario could trigger a strong altcoin rally from Q4 into Q1.
This chart aims to visualize that rotational capital flow and position sizing opportunity across the cycle.
Historically, we've seen altcoin capitulation phases follow a two-stage structure: an initial local bottom in June/July, followed by a final sweep or structural low into October (Q4), as observed in both 2023 and 2024. Given this repeating seasonal pattern, I expect ETH to potentially retrace against BTC in Q4 making a higher low, which could set the stage for altcoins to make a lower low and retest their key range lows — particularly near the 0.25 ETH/BTC level.
Should ETH maintain a higher low and resume trend afterward, it would likely mark a rotation point where capital begins flowing into higher-beta altcoins. Coupled with potential macro tailwinds like rate cuts or dovish policy pivots, this scenario could trigger a strong altcoin rally from Q4 into Q1.
This chart aims to visualize that rotational capital flow and position sizing opportunity across the cycle.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.