Surprise from US GDP, Apple Reporting and Robinhood Problems

28 Jan 2022

The main event of yesterday, which breathed a little optimism into the financial markets, was the publication of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2021. With an average growth forecast of 5.5%, in fact, 6.9% came out. The figure itself is great, and if you remember all the difficulties, from omicron to problems with logistics, then the joy of buyers in the US stock market is understandable and justified.

After all, it turns out that in 2021, US GDP grew by 5.7%. And this is nothing less than the best result since 1984.
However, it is still too early to rush headlong into purchases. Inflation hasn't gone away, as has the Fed's desire to fight it.

And the reporting season is still quite ambiguous. On the one hand, Apple broke every conceivable record, demonstrating quarterly revenue of $123.9 billion (up 11% from the same quarter a year ago), which was almost $5 billion higher than analysts' forecasts. Earnings also came out better than expected.

On the other hand, McDonald's earnings and revenue fell short of analysts' expectations. The reason is on the surface - high costs (hello inflation) ate profits.

But the main reminder that the covid bacchanalia in the stock market is coming to an end was the reporting of Robinhood. The company expects first-quarter 2022 revenue to be less than $340 million, down 35% from 2021. At the same time, according to FactSet, markets expected revenue of $448.2 million in the first quarter. Well, monthly active users fell to 17.3 million last quarter from 18.9 million in the third quarter. Naturally, Robinhood's stock plummeted. At the moment they are quoted 85% (!) lower than six months ago. This is how bubbles burst.